Cessna Replacement - The Options

[Anzac]

They were found to be "unsuitable" after the US offered Texans to go with their Blackhawks, not unlike New Zealand who were to buy PC9s as well but then got the same offer as the Mexicans.

Just to clear up a misconception. The RNZAF never were to buy PC-9's. Pilatus like a number of others from industry answered an RFI for a Pilot Training Capability that included not just the airframes but importantly a full spectrum support and training curriculum package, which was the defining characteristic in Hawker Pacific getting the contract.

[Anzac]

The US would rather you bought Beech T6s, probably at fire sale prices, to deny the Swiss sales to people the US considers "their" friends. The downside is that the nearest PC-9 user is Australia and the aircraft are essentially incompatible...

... the RAAF last month IOC'ed the Swiss PC-21 into service

http://australianaviation.com.au/201...-raaf-service/

[ropebag]

going back to the ISTAR requirement for the Cessna replacement...

http://https://www.flightglobal.com/...llance-441135/

short version, the RAF is upgrading its existing 5 King Air 350CER/Shadow R1's to R2 standard and buying another 3 KA 350CER airframes at R2 standard.

an excellent opportunity for a biggyback buy?

[Anzac]

going back to the ISTAR requirement for the Cessna replacement...

http://https://www.flightglobal.com/...llance-441135/

short version, the RAF is upgrading its existing 5 King Air 350CER/Shadow R1's to R2 standard and buying another 3 KA 350CER airframes at R2 standard.

an excellent opportunity for a biggyback buy?

If you are sure that the rolling out the door price at circa £14 million per unit is fine. You may find that the DSCA transfer policies would get in the way at the US end however.

[ropebag]

If you are sure that the rolling out the door price at circa £14 million per unit is fine...

well, its fine for us...

[Graylion]

Do we know enough about the role of the Shadows to know whether they'd be useful?

[ropebag]

Do we know enough about the role of the Shadows to know whether they'd be useful?

What is it you want to be able to do?

They are a hugely capable theatre-level int asset, they fall solidly into the 'things any operational commander would willingly sell his children's souls to have' pile...

Much more useful than, say, a random and barely equipped light Infantry Bn - and, for the cynical politician, much less controversial and publicity attracting.

[Graylion]

What is it you want to be able to do?

They are a hugely capable theatre-level int asset, they fall solidly into the 'things any operational commander would willingly sell his children's souls to have' pile...

Much more useful than, say, a random and barely equipped light Infantry Bn - and, for the cynical politician, much less controversial and publicity attracting.

Oh I fully agree - I just want some surface surveillance as well (RADAR and FLIR), so we can tick the MPA box.

Only thing about them is that the ekeltrickery is by Lockheed. I'd rather have the SAAB suite.

[ropebag]

Oh I fully agree - I just want some surface surveillance as well (RADAR and FLIR), so we can tick the MPA box...

we're back at the same point we are with the MRV/OPV/whatever-the-hell discussion - should Ireland get something that fits within its own defence structure/operation but that doesn't fit within a wider EU capability, or get something that doesn't quite fit within its own domestic/local structure/operations but that fits into an EU capability?

i think its difficult to argue that there isn't already some form of demarkation between National defence structure/operations and assets specifically designed for EU/UN use with the formation and resources spent on the ISTAR Coy - so we've got over the issue in principle, whats left is to decide on the practical stuff.

i take the view - as demonstrated by the ISTAR Coy - that the most effective way for Ireland to contribute to EU defence/security is in niche capability. budget and politics mean that a flight of Gripen/F-16 over the Baltic, or a Bde HQ and Mech/Armoured Bn on the Polish border, or a €500m Frigate in the eastern Med simply aren't on the cards, so the DF should look at what fits both the budget constraints and the political constraints and go for enabling cababilities rather than the more politically difficult 'doing' capabilities.

ISTAR, or Airlift, or battlefield mobility (helicopters) in the air, logistic support at sea, SF and ISTAR, as well as good old fashioned PK/PE on land...

[Graylion]

we're back at the same point we are with the MRV/OPV/whatever-the-hell discussion - should Ireland get something that fits within its own defence structure/operation but that doesn't fit within a wider EU capability, or get something that doesn't quite fit within its own domestic/local structure/operations but that fits into an EU capability?

i think its difficult to argue that there isn't already some form of demarkation between National defence structure/operations and assets specifically designed for EU/UN use with the formation and resources spent on the ISTAR Coy - so we've got over the issue in principle, whats left is to decide on the practical stuff.

i take the view - as demonstrated by the ISTAR Coy - that the most effective way for Ireland to contribute to EU defence/security is in niche capability. budget and politics mean that a flight of Gripen/F-16 over the Baltic, or a Bde HQ and Mech/Armoured Bn on the Polish border, or a €500m Frigate in the eastern Med simply aren't on the cards, so the DF should look at what fits both the budget constraints and the political constraints and go for enabling cababilities rather than the more politically difficult 'doing' capabilities.

ISTAR, or Airlift, or battlefield mobility (helicopters) in the air, logistic support at sea, SF and ISTAR, as well as good old fashioned PK/PE on land...

completely and utterly d'accord. I;d add that we also should see about procuring capabilities through our allies. EATC is one way to do this. We really don't need 2 small cargo birds cum MPA for 3 cargo runs a year where we also have to procure civilian lift capacity.

[Anzac]

we're back at the same point we are with the MRV/OPV/whatever-the-hell discussion - should Ireland get something that fits within its own defence structure/operation but that doesn't fit within a wider EU capability, or get something that doesn't quite fit within its own domestic/local structure/operations but that fits into an EU capability?

From a policy standpoint the way to go is a niche capability solution that has mission efficacy within the context of Ireland’s EEZ Conops whilst building on one’s existing strengths, yet also contributes to the wider geo-security context of the Euro-Atlantic region in a meaningful way. It does not have to be an either or kind of choice.

i think its difficult to argue that there isn't already some form of demarkation between National defence structure/operations and assets specifically designed for EU/UN use with the formation and resources spent on the ISTAR Coy - so we've got over the issue in principle, whats left is to decide on the practical stuff.

i take the view - as demonstrated by the ISTAR Coy - that the most effective way for Ireland to contribute to EU defence/security is in niche capability. budget and politics mean that a flight of Gripen/F-16 over the Baltic, or a Bde HQ and Mech/Armoured Bn on the Polish border, or a €500m Frigate in the eastern Med simply aren't on the cards, so the DF should look at what fits both the budget constraints and the political constraints and go for enabling cababilities rather than the more politically difficult 'doing' capabilities.

Timeframe wise the opportunity wont present itself until the MPA capability requires replacement but a tier 1 maritime ISR platform with overland capabilities is where this local-global dilemma could be solved.

ISTAR, or Airlift, or battlefield mobility (helicopters) in the air, logistic support at sea, SF and ISTAR, as well as good old fashioned PK/PE on land...

One or two capability sets from each of the service components Land, Maritime and Air, that can offer both a domestic and an EU/International output would be an ideal consideration for force planning. Land component already offers ARW and ISTAR Company, and the planned MRV in the maritime component is an ideal capability to meet this niche criteria and what it offers is well known. Those boxes are ticked.

What is left is the Air component and this is where I see something like Saab Swordfish being really transformative not just for Ireland but for the whole Euro-Atlantic region. Having four Swordfish as 'guardians' operating in the North-East Atlantic flying out of the Don or Shannon would nail down the domestic needs in the Maritime ISR context but offer a substantive addition to the wider regional security umbrella.

[WhingeNot]

Correction..! My two recent mentions of PC-24s,.. were typos - I was referring of course to the 'Heir Apparent' - the turbo-prop' PC-12 that I listed details for... Carry on!

[Graylion]

What is left is the Air component and this is where I see something like Saab Swordfish being really transformative not just for Ireland but for the whole Euro-Atlantic region. Having four Swordfish as 'guardians' operating in the North-East Atlantic flying out of the Don or Shannon would nail down the domestic needs in the Maritime ISR context but offer a substantive addition to the wider regional security umbrella.

I'd love that, but that's be _really_ expensive. Go with smaller MPA based on King Air // Avanti // PC-24 and get our feet wet. Save the money for CASA replacements and buy into EATC. Replace LearJet with Avanti or PC-24.

[na grohmití]

I'd love that, but that's be _really_ expensive. Go with smaller MPA based on King Air // Avanti // PC-24 and get our feet wet. Save the money for CASA replacements and buy into EATC. Replace LearJet with Avanti or PC-24.

I can't believe you would reject the Swordfish, an established airframe, designed to replace something like Nimrod or P3 Orion based on price alone and still insist on the Avanti toy, a millionaires runabout with a flir stuck on..

[Anzac]

I'd love that, but that's be _really_ expensive. Go with smaller MPA based on King Air // Avanti // PC-24 and get our feet wet. Save the money for CASA replacements and buy into EATC. Replace LearJet with Avanti or PC-24.

Your feet are already wet, you are already in the long mission MPA game. It is taking it to the next capability level and if you noticed I was discussing Swordfish in the context of the CASA replacement and the ability of the Air Corps to offer a tier 1 capability in the regional context. Yes it makes sense to also have a second tier adjunct capability like PC-12, KingAir for inner EEZ constabulary work whilst the prime asset concentrates on the prime ISR taskings.

[pym]

I'll say it again, I strongly suspect that they didn't go looking for ISR Spec King Airs to replace the Cessna's because DoD would then have insisted on King Airs replacing the Casa's.

The single engine of the PC-12 inherently limits its Marpat capabilities, meaning a separate multi engine Casa replacement is still a must.

The single engine however also limits its eh, suitability, for providing ISR support to the rest of the DF abroad.

It's bizzaro and nutty logic, which is why I believe it's likely to be true.

The idea of a fleet of four long range aircraft of the Swordfish class that are able to work against sub threats and to drop something more devastating than a dinghy.... sign me up.

But I'll repeat myself again - that kind of quantum leap in capability is, in my opinion, only likely to come if the EU waves a big bloody pointy stick at us.

"Oh you want your low corporate tax rate? Oh and what are you contributing to EU Defence? Oh.. well, something will have to give... to begin with, I notice you have a lot of ocean..."

[Graylion]

I can't believe you would reject the Swordfish, an established airframe, designed to replace something like Nimrod or P3 Orion based on price alone and still insist on the Avanti toy, a millionaires runabout with a flir stuck on..

reworked airframe with wider wingspan and 3300 nm range

15.5 M$ avionics fit - that is a *beep* of a lot more than "a FLIR stuck on"

And I would love a Swordfish or three, I just can't see it happening fiscally.

[Graylion]

But I'll repeat myself again - that kind of quantum leap in capability is, in my opinion, only likely to come if the EU waves a big bloody pointy stick at us.

"Oh you want your low corporate tax rate? Oh and what are you contributing to EU Defence? Oh.. well, something will have to give... to begin with, I notice you have a lot of ocean..."

*g* - and we'd need a higher corporation tax to pay for it ....

[DeV]

I suspect that the reason they decided to go single engine is more to do with running costs and crew availability

[pym]

I suspect that the reason they decided to go single engine is more to do with running costs and crew availability

And running costs are a fine reason if the plan is to leave them at home.

[Anzac]

The idea of a fleet of four long range aircraft of the Swordfish class that are able to work against sub threats and to drop something more devastating than a dinghy.... sign me up.

But I'll repeat myself again - that kind of quantum leap in capability is, in my opinion, only likely to come if the EU waves a big bloody pointy stick at us.

"Oh you want your low corporate tax rate? Oh and what are you contributing to EU Defence? Oh.. well, something will have to give... to begin with, I notice you have a lot of ocean..."

PESCO (Permanent Structured Cooperation) is going to happen and the pressure will come on from the other European Capitals to spread the load of the required strategic weight that the PESCO negotiations are after. Ireland will have to be seen to be doing something even though it may wish to hold on to the "shop front" of neutrality and not offer a formal commitment through PESCO into participation.

At least with Swordfish Ireland could point their big stick to a maritime capability set that would be the most capable in the Post Brexit EU and say in return to pressure from other capitals - what do you mean we are not doing enough - we are guarding your left flank here contributing to freedom of navigation across the Atlantic to North America, patrolling this now larger EEZ and SAR zone?

It maybe indeed be a cost neutral option to maintain neutrality because Juncker and Tusk will find a way a way to make you pay for it. Imagine a compulsory defence surcharge on all (Post Brexit) EU27 members based on the size and wealth of ones domestic economy. If Ireland makes up 2% of the EU Economy and they want 5.5B Euros p.a to fund PESCO each year then you'd be up for 110 million a year on a pro-rata basis. You'd might as well spend the money on ones own Defence Force rather than funding something you'd have no control over.

From a non irish citizens perspective, Ireland as a wealthy western liberal democracy that relies on interdependence in diplomacy, trade and security between other nations and EU partners, does have a responsibility towards the collective common good of those interests even if you are not entering into a formal defence relationship.

[DeV]

And running costs are a fine reason if the plan is to leave them at home.

Or to put it another way it is easier and cheaper to deploy

[Graylion]

From a non irish citizens perspective, Ireland as a wealthy western liberal democracy that relies on interdependence in diplomacy, trade and security between other nations and EU partners, does have a responsibility towards the collective common good of those interests even if you are not entering into a formal defence relationship.

Indeed! If only the Irish public got that.

[ropebag]

Or to put it another way it is easier and cheaper to deploy

Oh Dev...

No operational commander is going to accept the PC-12 and the logistics train that goes with it because it's a) not far off useless, and b) so vulnerable (single engine, no DAS) that it gives him nothing but a headache.

So, you are correct in one way - they are cheaper to deploy because no one will have them, so they won't deploy...

The Irish government, not - apparently - being fools, know this and deliberately picked the PC-12 to rid them of any danger of having to do anything expensive or controversial with it.

Turf cutting and 'fact finding' missions to Switzerland...

[morpheus]

The real reason why we need properly equipped naval service and an air corps which has access to multiple high performance maritime patrol platforms.
http://www.askaboutireland.ie/readin...an-environmen/