I have a strong belief that the WP is trying to be all things to all people but as it says itself everything is dependant on the country's financial situation.
There is absolutely threats out there, but in the most case the military threat is remote. The biggest single threat to this State is economic!
For that reason alone you won't see any Government borrowing huge amounts of money to pay for anything. When Garda stations were closed, local A&E's were shut down - those left open didn't really get an extra resources. Look at the waiting lists or Tusla not having enough social workers (and Ireland being cited by the UN over human rights).
The reality is that any extra money will be prioritised to health, education, justice, housing, social welfare. Any money left over after that Defence may get priority.
The WP talks about multi-annual budgets, medium-long term purchasing plans etc. All that is already done (there is room for improvement yes). They are to look at alternative and pooling & sharing etc.
Before I look at equipment, the WP states that Baldonnel, Haulbowline, McKee and the Curragh all need essential capital projects that cannot be met from existing funding.
What does the WP say is required? (figures are my estimates based on what has been spend in the past)
an APC LEP / replacement programme (min €100m for a replacement programme)
Armoured Logistics Vehicles (?)
CASA replacement - consideration to larger more multi-role aircraft (min €40m)
Cessna replacement - 3 larger ISTAR aircraft (probably around the €5-10m mark)
Eithne replacement (min €100+ million)
CPV replacement (say €60 million)
Possibly Learjet replacement (say €10 million)
Then the WP says if extra funding becomes available they will look at more APCs, more LTAVs, army AD capabilities, an air intercept capability and more NS vessels.
Most of what is required is actually required (with no extra funding) is needed within the next 10 years or so.
Add that up, the 2016 estimate for defensive equipment is € 21m, in the good times it hit a high of €37m for about 4 years.
By the way a lot of other things are paid for out of that budget too that aren't necessarily headline grabbers (eg ammo for ops & training), etc.
To get to the absolute min level of capability that is required (not desired) will require an absolute min of at least a guaranteed 52% increase in funding (over the current level) on defensive equipment for the next 10 years. Realistically that wouldn't deliver more capable APCs, larger maritime patrol aircraft, extensive armed MRV or extensive armed CPVs, that is just to maintain current capabilities (with the add of a larger EPV (with little capacity).
That doesn't take account of inflation (my figures are based on in some cases what something cost in the 90s), etc.
There is absolutely threats out there, but in the most case the military threat is remote. The biggest single threat to this State is economic!
For that reason alone you won't see any Government borrowing huge amounts of money to pay for anything. When Garda stations were closed, local A&E's were shut down - those left open didn't really get an extra resources. Look at the waiting lists or Tusla not having enough social workers (and Ireland being cited by the UN over human rights).
The reality is that any extra money will be prioritised to health, education, justice, housing, social welfare. Any money left over after that Defence may get priority.
The WP talks about multi-annual budgets, medium-long term purchasing plans etc. All that is already done (there is room for improvement yes). They are to look at alternative and pooling & sharing etc.
Before I look at equipment, the WP states that Baldonnel, Haulbowline, McKee and the Curragh all need essential capital projects that cannot be met from existing funding.
What does the WP say is required? (figures are my estimates based on what has been spend in the past)
an APC LEP / replacement programme (min €100m for a replacement programme)
Armoured Logistics Vehicles (?)
CASA replacement - consideration to larger more multi-role aircraft (min €40m)
Cessna replacement - 3 larger ISTAR aircraft (probably around the €5-10m mark)
Eithne replacement (min €100+ million)
CPV replacement (say €60 million)
Possibly Learjet replacement (say €10 million)
Then the WP says if extra funding becomes available they will look at more APCs, more LTAVs, army AD capabilities, an air intercept capability and more NS vessels.
Most of what is required is actually required (with no extra funding) is needed within the next 10 years or so.
Add that up, the 2016 estimate for defensive equipment is € 21m, in the good times it hit a high of €37m for about 4 years.
By the way a lot of other things are paid for out of that budget too that aren't necessarily headline grabbers (eg ammo for ops & training), etc.
To get to the absolute min level of capability that is required (not desired) will require an absolute min of at least a guaranteed 52% increase in funding (over the current level) on defensive equipment for the next 10 years. Realistically that wouldn't deliver more capable APCs, larger maritime patrol aircraft, extensive armed MRV or extensive armed CPVs, that is just to maintain current capabilities (with the add of a larger EPV (with little capacity).
That doesn't take account of inflation (my figures are based on in some cases what something cost in the 90s), etc.
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