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  • Originally posted by CTU View Post
    What about Russian Bears flying in Irish Controled Airspace with no transponders, or a Russian aircraft carrier spilling fuel off the Irish coast. And I wouldn't be surprised if there was a Russian SSBN off the west coast or in the Irish sea tonight. Ireland might not be in NATO but its right in the middle of it's area of responsibility and won't be immune from Russian hostilities.
    Can the Russians even get their SSBN's out of port? Hell even if they could didn't they normally stay up in the Arctic?

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    • Originally posted by Sparky42 View Post
      Can the Russians even get their SSBN's out of port? Hell even if they could didn't they normally stay up in the Arctic?
      SSBN's are unlikely for the reasons you give. SSN's, surface combatants and aircraft however...

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      • Well they are building a new class of SSBN. Although considering the RN aircraft carriers and the will they - won't they be fully operational, they could just end up rusting in a Russian port like the typhoons in the 90s.

        It was the year of fire...the year of destruction...the year we took back what was ours.
        It was the year of rebirth...the year of great sadness...the year of pain...and the year of joy.
        It was a new age...It was the end of history.
        It was the year everything changed.

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        • Originally posted by ropebag View Post
          SSBN's are unlikely for the reasons you give. SSN's, surface combatants and aircraft however...
          And again there's plenty of issues with the operational rate for most of them and at the Russian build rate is only going to get much worse as the last of the Soviet Union hulls break down (I mean they just had to sell some brand new hulls as they can't get engines from the Ukraine). I mean for example the SSN's are mostly 25 year plus hulls at this stage, how much longer can they stay in operation? Given the build rate of the Yasen's they certainly aren't going to get a 1 for 1 replacement rate I would think.

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          • Originally posted by Sparky42 View Post
            And again there's plenty of issues with the operational rate for most of them and at the Russian build rate is only going to get much worse as the last of the Soviet Union hulls break down (I mean they just had to sell some brand new hulls as they can't get engines from the Ukraine). I mean for example the SSN's are mostly 25 year plus hulls at this stage, how much longer can they stay in operation? Given the build rate of the Yasen's they certainly aren't going to get a 1 for 1 replacement rate I would think.
            how many is enough to matter?

            if one TU-160 trails his coat down the west coast once a year with his transponder off, is that enough? or would it need to be every six months?

            does the Russian Navy have to put a guided missile destroyer in Swedish waters once in order to matter, or do they need to do it once a month?

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            • Originally posted by CTU View Post
              Well they are building a new class of SSBN. Although considering the RN aircraft carriers and the will they - won't they be fully operational, they could just end up rusting in a Russian port like the typhoons in the 90s.

              https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borei-class_submarine
              Sure Vlad has plenty of things "building", including the "Aircraft carriers" that they are just 5 years away from having in service... But there's plenty of issues with what they have planned I mean all bare 2 of their surface fleet (ignoring the Corvettes) are 20 plus years old again and they don't seem to have much to replace them in the pipeline either...

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              • Originally posted by ropebag View Post
                how many is enough to matter?

                if one TU-160 trails his coat down the west coast once a year with his transponder off, is that enough? or would it need to be every six months?
                does the Russian Navy have to put a guided missile destroyer in Swedish waters once in order to matter, or do they need to do it once a month?
                Not disputing the fair point that you have, I'm just saying that the Russians even with their military first spending at the moment, have huge block end of life issues with issues with the replacements across the board.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Sparky42 View Post
                  Sure Vlad has plenty of things "building", including the "Aircraft carriers" that they are just 5 years away from having in service... But there's plenty of issues with what they have planned I mean all bare 2 of their surface fleet (ignoring the Corvettes) are 20 plus years old again and they don't seem to have much to replace them in the pipeline either...
                  I'll bet someone said the samething about Germany in the 1930's and look how that turned out. Sure maybe the are papering over the cracks and rattling the sabre, but in the last ten years they have invaded Georgia, Annexed Crimea and are doing what ever they like in Syria.

                  But enough about Russia and more about EPVs for the Naval Service.
                  It was the year of fire...the year of destruction...the year we took back what was ours.
                  It was the year of rebirth...the year of great sadness...the year of pain...and the year of joy.
                  It was a new age...It was the end of history.
                  It was the year everything changed.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by ropebag View Post
                    or military confrontation on Europes eastern borders creating political instability and economic difficulties - you share the same currency as Poland and Latvia, not to mention Greece, if they have a problem, you have a problem.

                    with the greatest of respect Dev, i really don't think you've grasped just how intertwined Ireland is with continental Europe - the Euro and the trade you do with Europe means that in some ways you're in the same country at Tallin and Athens: when they are in the shit, you are in the shit. not getting involved is no more of an option than one hotel room not being interested when the next hotel room is on fire.
                    Without drifting off the thread.

                    The is a threat, of course there is, and it is very low. The Ukraine situation is complex, is direct conflict between NATO and Russian forces likely? No - both are actually trying to avoid it

                    Believe it or not, Russians (and Greeks) have been on courses in the Curragh on at least a couple of occasions since the Ukrainian conflict began.

                    Comment


                    • I like this for a MRV blue green thing, ticks a whole load of boxes
                      Covid 19 is not over ....it's still very real..Hand Hygiene, Social Distancing and Masks.. keep safe

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                      • Originally posted by CTU View Post
                        What about Russian Bears flying in Irish Controled Airspace with no transponders, or a Russian aircraft carrier spilling fuel off the Irish coast. And I wouldn't be surprised if there was a Russian SSBN off the west coast or in the Irish sea tonight. Ireland might not be in NATO but its right in the middle of it's area of responsibility and won't be immune from Russian hostilities.
                        True but it isn't to sabre rattle us

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                        • Originally posted by hptmurphy View Post
                          I like this for a MRV blue green thing, ticks a whole load of boxes
                          And hell the Algerians just built an uprated one this year...

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                          • she is the San Giorgio class with a landing capability, and airborne operations. Has 3 LCM's and 3 LCVP. can carry 36 tracked vehicles with up to 350 troops. The sticky out bits for the Landing craft would be a nightmare for docking as they are well outside the box of the hull. She is relatively slow at 18/21 knots and a bit big at almost 8000tonnes. reasonably well armed. In 2012 was flagship to Operation Atalanta.

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                            • As regards Budgets for Defence spending and specifically the budget for the MRV Dev and others have used the

                              “We cant afford it” and the “There is no real threat/low threat” argument.

                              Can I ask anyone who is thinking like this or who believes that the Government accepts this thinking to read the WP again.

                              Specifically look at the chapter related to budgets and how all this stuff will be paid for.

                              As regards the whole “problems in the Baltic/Greece/North Africa are not our problems argument the Govt, disagrees, the WP states.

                              “As outlined earlier in the White Paper, emergencies with national impact can come in a variety of forms. Some of these, while not originating from a security threat, can result in security impacts for which defence capabilities are a necessary response.” (WP page 114)

                              Furthermore the WP recognizes that historically there has been significant underinvestment in defence down through the years and that this situation must change.

                              “In the past, Ireland has found itself on occasion, without the defence capabilities that it needed to respond to deterioration in the security environment or other defence challenges. The situation at the time of the Second World War, the capacity in depth to provide for international peacekeeping into the 1960s and the commencement of the Northern Troubles all brought unwanted and to a degree partly avoidable challenges to our limited defence capacities. Successful defence is achieved based on adequate foresight, sufficient preparation and flexibility and poise and adequate funding. Ongoing policy has sought to ensure that these are in place. This White Paper seeks to ensure that the necessary arrangements are in place, consistent with standing Exchequer budgetary processes, to provide optimal financial resources to respond to emergent challenges in the security environment and to assure foresight, flexibility and poise and thus preparedness.”

                              And to continue the WP paper later states

                              “The corollary of this planning context is that potential problems and threats of varying degrees of probability (for which defence capabilities are required) often do not appear as urgent matters in current terms.”

                              “The security environment and the associated defence requirements in the period ahead will require a sustained and developed approach to building and maintaining defence capabilities.”

                              I know a lot of this information from the WP is very obtuse and is framed in such a way so as to put the reader to sleep. This is VERY deliberate, so is the fact that all of the really interesting stuff is hidden at the back of the WP. Most people jump to the “crunchy” part of the document relating to combat capabilities on Land Sea and Air. However these combat capabilities cannot exist without all party political support, financial planning and management implementation programmes. So if you want to know how big the MRV will be what threat environment it is designed to operate in, how much money will be available for it and how it will be paid for ….. then read the boring parts of the WP.

                              They give the clearest hints as to what will happen.

                              And before I go the WP for political reasons could not come right out and say “We are increasing defence spending and will be buying s small Aircraft carrier. (To most non interested observers the San Giorgio is an Aircraft carrier anything with a flat deck will be regarded as such) BUT! The WP goes as close as is politically possible to saying all of these things. You just need to pour over the boring parts a few times.

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                              • Also relevant to this thread

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