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  • #61
    It is conceivable currently that we would join NATO, there is too much opposition (look at Nice and Lisbon).

    To be honest, whatever about during the boom, I can't see a major of NI's population wanting to come into the Republic.

    As I previously said, the NI Assembly can't make the choice to remain in the EU.

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    • #62
      It is true that NI cant make the choice to remain as England makes up in the 80% of UK's population. But there is a chance that during the referendum on EU membership NI will vote to remain in. The SDLP SF Alliance support it the DUP cant make up there minds. Peter Robinson made a statement a while back that even that his party is euro-sceptic it would support EU membership. This saying back during the euro elections the DUP's only MEP Diane Dodds said she was Against. And of course the UUP/TUV are against.

      Its like Alex Salmond said people from Scotland have never voted for a Conservative government. The same can be said in NI in recent times anyway in the last two Westminster elections the conservatives' fielded candidates but failed.

      If the UK leaves you could see a rise in support in middle of the road northerners wanting to become part of the republic.

      Comment


      • #63
        Originally posted by Stevo768 View Post
        It is true that NI cant make the choice to remain as England makes up in the 80% of UK's population. But there is a chance that during the referendum on EU membership NI will vote to remain in. The SDLP SF Alliance support it the DUP cant make up there minds. Peter Robinson made a statement a while back that even that his party is euro-sceptic it would support EU membership. This saying back during the euro elections the DUP's only MEP Diane Dodds said she was Against. And of course the UUP/TUV are against.

        Its like Alex Salmond said people from Scotland have never voted for a Conservative government. The same can be said in NI in recent times anyway in the last two Westminster elections the conservatives' fielded candidates but failed.

        If the UK leaves you could see a rise in support in middle of the road northerners wanting to become part of the republic.
        NI would have to vote for independance first, before any vote on EU membership, as the devolved powers don't include foreign affairs

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        • #64
          Originally posted by DeV View Post
          I agree but it has definitely improved since the 80s

          Doesn't say much about the 80's because it's pretty grim at the moment. You know it's a shame we can't have an open debate on what we want as our National Defence policy instead of what some bean counter thinks we want. I know submissions were invited from interested parties but in the last White Paper these were simply ignored. Maybe when the Draft White Paper is presented to our new Minister he will open up that sort of a debate. I certainly hope so.

          However the most likely scenario will be a quiet endorsement at a cabinet meeting and hey presto we have a new Defence Policy.

          Comment


          • #65
            Originally posted by DeV View Post
            NI would have to vote for independance first, before any vote on EU membership, as the devolved powers don't include foreign affairs
            NI would not have to vote for Independence it would be voting to become part of the Republic of Ireland who would be an member of the EU. NI does actually have is own international relations through OFM-DFM.

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            • #66
              The GP was published to discuss and debate

              Does anyone else foresee an other potentially likely conventional threat?

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              • #67
                Originally posted by Stevo768 View Post
                NI would not have to vote for Independence it would be voting to become part of the Republic of Ireland who would be an member of the EU. NI does actually have is own international relations through OFM-DFM.
                That's not what you stated in your previous post
                England, Wales, Scotland and NI don't have separate votes on EU membership, they vote as a single State (UK & NI)

                Same way as Munster doesn't vote to say no and does it own thing (although they would like to)

                Foreign affairs in NI has it's policy set by and Minister in Westminster (not Stormont)

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                • #68
                  What I stated in post#62 NI would be forced to leave the EU (An organisation it does very well out of) because of England making up over 80% of the UK. It could be the catalyst for people in NI that policy's made in Westminster are not suited to them. And they would be better off a part of the Republic of Ireland. This scenario would have a effect on the Defence forces as it may have to be involved in Counter-Insurgency operations most likely in built up areas.

                  Westminster does set NI Foreign affairs but the point I was making is that the NI assembly does have its own International relations to support the powers that are devolved like Tourism Enterprise and Agriculture being the main ones.

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                  • #69
                    Originally posted by Stevo768 View Post
                    It could be the catalyst for people in NI that policy's made in Westminster are not suited to them. And they would be better off a part of the Republic of Ireland.
                    So they make one great hop from London policies to Dublin ones - completely skipping greater autonomy? Completely skipping all other other arrangements?

                    Seriously?

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                    • #70
                      Originally posted by pym View Post
                      So they make one great hop from London policies to Dublin ones - completely skipping greater autonomy? Completely skipping all other other arrangements?

                      Seriously?
                      Its only a Theory a rational type of abstract or generalised thinking. We will see soon in the new year if Westminster is willing to devolve more powers as Scotland was promised if it voted no in the independence referendum.

                      But would people in the Republic not prefer that conclusion rather than a United Ireland purely based on Sectarian headcount.
                      Last edited by Stevo768; 19 November 2014, 22:30. Reason: Grammar

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                      • #71
                        Originally posted by Stevo768 View Post
                        What I stated in post#62 NI would be forced to leave the EU (An organisation it does very well out of) because of England making up over 80% of the UK. It could be the catalyst for people in NI that policy's made in Westminster are not suited to them. And they would be better off a part of the Republic of Ireland. This scenario would have a effect on the Defence forces as it may have to be involved in Counter-Insurgency operations most likely in built up areas.

                        Westminster does set NI Foreign affairs but the point I was making is that the NI assembly does have its own International relations to support the powers that are devolved like Tourism Enterprise and Agriculture being the main ones.
                        Originally posted by pym View Post
                        So they make one great hop from London policies to Dublin ones - completely skipping greater autonomy? Completely skipping all other other arrangements?

                        Seriously?
                        So you need a change of events:
                        A) the UK (including NI) decide to leave the EU
                        B) NI holds a referendum on becoming part of RoI
                        C) They decide to join RoI

                        You assume of course, that we would want them (and the highly possible Civil War that would follow) - it would cost more than it was worth

                        And NI may be better off (the Irish taxpayer definitely would)

                        Look up Schedule 2 of the Northern Ireland Act 1998

                        Comment


                        • #72
                          Yes there are arguments that NI would be better of in the UK. Examples would be in Health and Education In the latter NI students come out on top UK wide. But everything I say here is purely a theory and we have to be respectful.

                          But I don't think this is the thread to discuss this on.
                          Last edited by Stevo768; 19 November 2014, 22:47. Reason: Post Script

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            Originally posted by Stevo768 View Post
                            But would people in the Republic not prefer that conclusion rather than a United Ireland purely based on Sectarian headcount.
                            Well I don't think it's about us, to be honest. It's about the people in the North and what they want. And I think they're far from wanting a United Ireland anytime soon - regardless of Britains relationship with the EU.

                            Like I say, in my opinion - policies would bend and adapt a long way first. I think a very substantial proportion of the population of NI would prefer to be significantly worse off and remain part of the UK, than be part of a United Ireland.

                            And if just 0.5% of that number were prepared to take up arms to stop a UI, it'd be totally unsustainable for us. Just look at the numbers the British army had deployed. And that leaves aside the policing, the intelligence agencies etc. etc.

                            Actually, I'd like it if a few of the lads on IMO from the Unionist community, would pop in here and give us a dose of real talk

                            Comment


                            • #74
                              Hmm Interesting debate. I think the whole point is that the future relationship of NI to the UK and to the republic is uncertain. Remember (like it or not) that SF could well be in power both sides of the border soon enough and we could be looking at a 32 county referendum on a united Ireland shortly afterwards. It probably wouldnt get enough votes to pass but there is a clearly agreed path (as part of the Stormont Agreement) for NI to form part of a united Ireland.

                              Anyway interesting article on wider European defence policy and strategic thinking. Some of this is relevant to the debate here.

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                Northern Ireland is an interesting kettle of fish. I think the most overlooked point in the republic is that the addition of those voters would significant change the political landscape in Ireland in a way we can't predict.
                                Inn terms of defence policy...
                                Historically, I believe our situation started with a civil service which, at independence, saw its role as keeping the new government in line with London. Added to a free state government the feared the army. Followed by a Fianna Gail government that had been at war with the army. Defence policy never had a chance.
                                That attitude nearly cost us in the 40s, but we got away with it. So why spend on defence, the common thinking goes.

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