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  • Originally posted by DeV View Post
    The most likely threats are disruption to our democratic processes, disinformation, cyber attacks, natural disasters (including pandemics and animal diseases), disruption of rules based global and regional organisations and Brexit.
    Indeed Dev. Disruption and disinformation are the key words. You may find this Canadian Global Affairs Institute perspective interesting as it relates directly to what has been unfolding off the west coast of Ireland.

    https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.ne...pdf?1548354852

    Here is a precis of it.

    The modernization of Russia’s armed forces must thus be seen in the context of a new form of complex strategic coercion that employs systematic pressure across 5Ds: disinformation, destabilization, disruption, deception and implied destruction. Russia’s strategic goal is to conduct a continuous low-level war at the seams of democratic societies, and on the margins of both the EU and NATO, to create implicit spheres of influence where little or no such influence would otherwise exist. In the worst case, complex strategic coercion would be used to mask Russian force concentrations prior to any attack on NATO and EU states from above the Arctic Circle and Norway’s North Cape in the north, through the Baltic States and Black Sea region and into the southeastern Mediterranean. The strategy’s enduring method is to use the implicit threat of force to keep the Western allies permanently off-balance, strategically, politically and militarily, and thus to offset any innate advantages afforded Western leaders by either their forces or resources.

    In that context one would start to get a little worried if at some stage TU-214R's with their standoff EW, ELINT and SIGINT capabilities start appearing on a regular basis even a couple of hundred kilometres off the Irish Coast.

    Comment


    • Any attempts by the Air Corps to acquire an ability to interfere with Russian flights will attract the attention of the Russian disinformation apparatus, and it will attempt to discourage public support.
      'He died who loved to live,' they'll say,
      'Unselfishly so we might have today!'
      Like hell! He fought because he had to fight;
      He died that's all. It was his unlucky night.
      http://www.salamanderoasis.org/poems...nnis/luck.html

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Flamingo View Post
        Any attempts by the Air Corps to acquire an ability to interfere with Russian flights will attract the attention of the Russian disinformation apparatus, and it will attempt to discourage public support.
        So you are saying Charlie252 is a Russian 5th columnist?

        Comment


        • Originally posted by na grohmiti View Post
          So you are saying Charlie252 is a Russian 5th columnist?
          I couldn’t possibly comment...
          'He died who loved to live,' they'll say,
          'Unselfishly so we might have today!'
          Like hell! He fought because he had to fight;
          He died that's all. It was his unlucky night.
          http://www.salamanderoasis.org/poems...nnis/luck.html

          Comment


          • Originally posted by ropebag View Post
            Just to offer an element of realism to this conversation, in the last couple of years Sweden has offered to provide Irish units with airlift for a couple of exercises - one a general Arctic Warfare exercise in Sweden, and two Air Defence live fire exercises in the Baltic, with a number of users of the RBS 70 - in one case they got a 'holding' reply, follows by a 'no thanks', and in the other two by no response at all.
            Estonia similar.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by na grohmiti View Post
              Would there be anything to gain by sending new techs to Oz too, to build time working in an active military air arm before the old sweats in the Don get to them?
              Not Even as far as Oz, just somewhere without a language barrier, that is appropriately neutral? Even at that, we sent Naval cadets to Britannia for years and nobody batted an eyelid. Send some AC techies to Brize or Benson for a year or so after they have qualified, show them how it's supposed to be done.
              Isn’t the international language of aviation English?

              Would having some DE officers from industry help change the culture? Bring in stuff like Six Sigma ETV to implement waste. If the paperwork is anything like more day to day admin in the army ......

              Originally posted by ropebag View Post
              Just to offer an element of realism to this conversation, in the last couple of years Sweden has offered to provide Irish units with airlift for a couple of exercises - one a general Arctic Warfare exercise in Sweden, and two Air Defence live fire exercises in the Baltic, with a number of users of the RBS 70 - in one case they got a 'holding' reply, follows by a 'no thanks', and in the other two by no response at all.
              Ask yourself who those (Official) offers go to? Chances are they are sent to people who have never worn a uniform.

              Originally posted by Anzac View Post
              Indeed Dev. Disruption and disinformation are the key words. You may find this Canadian Global Affairs Institute perspective interesting as it relates directly to what has been unfolding off the west coast of Ireland.

              https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.ne...pdf?1548354852

              Here is a precis of it.

              The modernization of Russia’s armed forces must thus be seen in the context of a new form of complex strategic coercion that employs systematic pressure across 5Ds: disinformation, destabilization, disruption, deception and implied destruction. Russia’s strategic goal is to conduct a continuous low-level war at the seams of democratic societies, and on the margins of both the EU and NATO, to create implicit spheres of influence where little or no such influence would otherwise exist. In the worst case, complex strategic coercion would be used to mask Russian force concentrations prior to any attack on NATO and EU states from above the Arctic Circle and Norway’s North Cape in the north, through the Baltic States and Black Sea region and into the southeastern Mediterranean. The strategy’s enduring method is to use the implicit threat of force to keep the Western allies permanently off-balance, strategically, politically and militarily, and thus to offset any innate advantages afforded Western leaders by either their forces or resources.

              In that context one would start to get a little worried if at some stage TU-214R's with their standoff EW, ELINT and SIGINT capabilities start appearing on a regular basis even a couple of hundred kilometres off the Irish Coast.
              Originally posted by Flamingo View Post
              Any attempts by the Air Corps to acquire an ability to interfere with Russian flights will attract the attention of the Russian disinformation apparatus, and it will attempt to discourage public support.
              I wouldn’t limit it to Russia being a threat.... cough we will starve Ireland due to Brexit, cough Ireland is taking US tax cough

              Comment


              • Originally posted by DeV View Post
                I wouldn’t limit it to Russia being a threat.... cough we will starve Ireland due to Brexit, cough Ireland is taking US tax cough
                And some will argue, and may even in time provide evidence, that "outside state influence*" may be responsible for whispering these things in the ears of the SPADs.

                *I'll leave it up to you to figure out who they might be
                It was the year of fire...the year of destruction...the year we took back what was ours.
                It was the year of rebirth...the year of great sadness...the year of pain...and the year of joy.
                It was a new age...It was the end of history.
                It was the year everything changed.

                Comment


                • While pilots may speak English to ATC, techies speak a whole other language. It is like english, but isn't.

                  Shannon Aerospace used to send it's trainee technicians to Switzerland and other interesting places. Only so much you can pick up in the shed in Shannon.

                  Comment


                  • @DeV - the offers were all made both in writing and in person to DF personnel at 1* level and above, and to ministers. I know about some of the UK invites because I did the logistics and joint training and support staff work for some of them. I've spoken to officers from a number of EU countries who have had similar experiences...

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by ropebag View Post
                      @DeV - the offers were all made both in writing and in person to DF personnel at 1* level and above, and to ministers. I know about some of the UK invites because I did the logistics and joint training and support staff work for some of them. I've spoken to officers from a number of EU countries who have had similar experiences...
                      Which have to be sent to civil servants to approve I’m sure

                      Comment


                      • Why would a minister have to ask a CS for approval?

                        Sorry, but I think there's a streak of using the CS/DOD as a convenient target - and yes, the toxic/poisonous attitude that the DOD has towards defence is well known throughout Europe - very few of the offers/initial conversations I've heard about, from the UK, France, Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Canada have been met with any kind of enthusiasm. That may be DF and ministers being beaten down, or not wanting to their hopes up, but the attitude isn't constructive or about problem solving, or understanding how it would benefit defence and persuading others of that.

                        If you get a response it's just a list of barriers - not problems to be solved - just barriers. Truth is, o don't think there's any real appetite for overseas exercises, even when all the logistics are laid on.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by ropebag View Post
                          Why would a minister have to ask a CS for approval?

                          Sorry, but I think there's a streak of using the CS/DOD as a convenient target - and yes, the toxic/poisonous attitude that the DOD has towards defence is well known throughout Europe - very few of the offers/initial conversations I've heard about, from the UK, France, Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Canada have been met with any kind of enthusiasm. That may be DF and ministers being beaten down, or not wanting to their hopes up, but the attitude isn't constructive or about problem solving, or understanding how it would benefit defence and persuading others of that.

                          If you get a response it's just a list of barriers - not problems to be solved - just barriers. Truth is, o don't think there's any real appetite for overseas exercises, even when all the logistics are laid on.
                          Would the minister even be told about these offers? My impression about the CS is that it loved to keep ministers in the dark, so they don't make inconvenient decisions.

                          Comment


                          • https://forum.irishmilitaryonline.co...ll=1#post45607

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by DeV View Post
                              The most likely threats are disruption to our democratic processes, disinformation, cyber attacks, natural disasters (including pandemics and animal diseases), disruption of rules based global and regional organisations and Brexit.
                              And each of the threats you list have a agency to try deal with it.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Graylion View Post
                                Would the minister even be told about these offers? My impression about the CS is that it loved to keep ministers in the dark, so they don't make inconvenient decisions.
                                Given the well known problems with the DOD, a number of the approaches are made minister to minister.

                                Comment

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