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Mako forecasted to win AEJPT contract, EADS to lead Military Trainer Market

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  • Mako forecasted to win AEJPT contract, EADS to lead Military Trainer Market

    EADS Expected to Lead Growing Military Trainer Market

    (Source: Forecast International; issued April 21, 2004)

    NEWTOWN, Conn. --- Military fixed-wing trainer deliveries will rise steadily through this decade, according to a market overview issued by Forecast International, and will total 2,238 shipments worth $17.5 billion during the 2004-2013 timeframe. In light of the tactical aircraft re-equipment cycle now under way by many major air arms, the need to address some long-postponed trainer require-ments is receiving new impetus.

    Quantitatively speaking, the U.S. Navy/Air Force Raytheon T-6A will be the most significant trainer during the next 10 years, with 693 deliveries projected for the U.S. services and export customers. No other type comes close – the EADS Mako and BAE Hawk, both advanced jet trainers, are expected to account for 260 and 250 shipments, respectively.

    The newest market entry is the EADS Mako, which has not yet flown. The Mako design will offer a supersonic capability, and as the aircraft is still in the development stage, it could be designed to dovetail with upcoming requirements. Forecast International has projected the Mako to win the anticipated Advanced European Jet Pilot Training (AEJPT) competition, despite stiff competition from Aermacchi’s M-346. The AEJPT contest is aimed at developing a common trainer type for 12 nations which have been conducting joint studies intermittently for about 10 years. About 150 aircraft would be required should the AEJPT program go forward. As the Mako falls under the EADS umbrella, it may be a tough candidate to unseat, politically speaking.

    The Korea Aerospace KT-1 turboprop and the same company’s T/A-50 jet are both being marketed outside Korea, thus far without success. (EDITOR’S NOTE: This is an error. South Korea has sold ten KT-1 trainers to Indonesia). The Sino-Pakistani HAIG/PAC team is another fairly recent newcomer, and is developing the K-8 jet trainer for both nations’ air forces.

    Among the former Warsaw Pact manufacturers, Yakovlev and MiG report very modest orders from the Russian Air Force, with the MiG-AT also expected to be built in Poland to fill a trainer requirement of that country. The Czech Republic’s Aero Vodochody is locked in a dispute with Boeing, which bought into Aero several years back, over marketing issues with the L-159. That aircraft has yet to post its first export sale and its future appears far from bright.

    Forecast International aviation analyst Bill Dane believes that the next generation of advanced jet trainers will almost certainly be products of joint ventures. The T-38 and Hawk replacements will be designed for pilots who must transition to combat jets with performance never before seen. According to Dane, “No single company could afford to develop such a trainer because of the limited and protected market: those countries that develop and subsequently purchase the next-generation fast combat aircraft.” He further notes that the shrinking force structures of Europe and America may compel nations to cooperate on the next-generation advanced jet trainers.

    In the years ahead, manufacturers seeking to carve out a respectable share of this market will also have to weigh the cost of incorporating a light attack capability into their candidate aircraft for a broader market appeal against offering a competitively priced design which will adequately meet a given air arm’s training needs.

    Forecast International is projecting EADS to dominate this market with a 22 percent market share on sales of $4.8 billion. The pan-European manufacturer will be trailed by Raytheon, BAE Systems, and the Korea Aerospace/Lockheed team.

    Forecast International, Inc., is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analyses in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics. Based in Newtown, CT, USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and innovative marketing presentations, including regular 10-year forecasts.


  • #2
    The MAKO will probably never even make it to the production line.As a concept it is flawed. Its trying very hard to be a light attack aircraft with its stealth etc but as a trainer it is far too over engineered and complicated and doesn't carry the payload to be a proper warplane.Its still just an airshow mockup.I wouldn't go drooling over it hoping for it to be an IAC jet becuase its still a trainer and not a proper combat plane.It'll never match proper combat jets like the Typhoons, Rafaels, Super Hornets and Flanker family.If you want a jet, lobby hard and buy or rent a true warplane, not something that is marketed as one.The Ameracchi, new Hawks or T50 will be the choices for air forces.
    Si vis pacem para bellum


    • #3
      The way we are going we'd be damm lucky to get old mig 21's from Poland.
      Fork don't bother telling us that Israel could do a good upgrade package on these balls of shit!
      By the way why why have you so many warnings at this stage already?


      • #4
        he made an off colour remark about ethnicity or race( "ze germans") and probing for operational info, if you hit the link for view warnings it'll post them
        Last edited by ex pat 007; 25 April 2004, 03:43.
        When I breeze into that city, people gonna stoop and bow.
        All them women gonna make me, teach 'em what they don't know how


        • #5
          FTD,please don't mention the T-50, the greens would love it as it carries no wepons.
          I hope you meant the F/A -50, which seems to be the best of the bunch of the next generation of light fighter, and would appear, at this stage to be a worthy successor to the F-5.
          "We will hold out until our last bullet is spent. Could do with some whiskey"
          Radio transmission, siege of Jadotville DR Congo. September 1961.
          Illegitimi non carborundum


          • #6
            Oh, my bad Turkey.Just typed T50 without thinking..The F/A50 will be the new F5 but not price wise and the Americans won't hand out the weapons that will make it effective ie AIM-9s AIM120s, JDAMS etc, without you really sucking up to them. It'll need rebuilt to operate with non-American weapons if it is to be an effective platform otherwise.I never mentioned the MiG21s.You said that The Thing and yes they can be upgraded but the LanceR uprgrade is as far as it goes and thats still just a turd with a coat of varnish so I'd NEVER advocate them to anybody.
            And yes I racked up points amazingly quickly.
            Last edited by ForkTailedDevil; 26 April 2004, 10:09.
            Si vis pacem para bellum