The New World

[The Prisoner]

As posted (predicted) back in September the IMF/EU are now in town. They have effectively lost confidence/patience with the powers that be. And who can blame them?

So, what's going to happen PDF/RDF wise? What cuts are likely over the next 12/18 months?

So, please no BA, TA, NZ, etc., etc. rubbish. The plans that are currently being prepared are to achieve a specific outcome and not to indulge people's fantasies and self delusion.

This is not going to be anything near an Irish solution to an Irish problem. This is going to be a cold, calculated, financially and socially painful, solution to an Irish problem.

[SwiftandSure]

Perhaps the RDF will become a totally voluntarily organisation. No pay, no grat, but the resources available to them remain the same (ammo, uniforms etc).

[The Prisoner]

Maybe the NS and AC may get more resources at the expense of the Army for combating drugs etc. Transfer bodies in, run down the army equipment and increase the equipment for the NS and AC.

Stopping the flow of drugs into the EU is someting I could see the IMF/EU buying into.

[luchi]

As posted (predicted) back in September the IMF/EU are now in town. They have effectively lost confidence/patience with the powers that be. And who can blame them?

Or they realised that the powers that be could not be tackeled.
Look at the recent news.
The Banks have been telling lies about their debt.
The Banks auditors have been ledd than informative about the situation.
Business people have borrowed to cover up their debt.
The legal profession has been milking everyone.

All to leave the little man to pick up the tab.

So, what's going to happen PDF/RDF wise? What cuts are likely over the next 12/18 months?

Why should any thing happen?
Ok I know that things will but why should they?
The DF and DoD has been striving to meet efficiencies.
Ireland military is organised and run in accordance with international best practice and so should be left alone.

So,............... not to indulge people's fantasies and self delusion.

Is it not a bit late to ask that?

This is not going to be anything near an Irish solution to an Irish problem. This is going to be a cold, calculated, financially and socially painful, solution to an Irish problem.

Why not?
In Iceland, Estonia and other recently "assisted" economies the IMF let the Governments come up with solutions.

Our problem is that the measures taken to date, which international financial experts said would work didn't.

Perhaps the RDF will become a totally voluntarily organisation. No pay, no grat, but the resources available to them remain the same (ammo, uniforms etc).

Only if someone can come up with a valid reason for the RDF.
As has been said the RDF has no REAL purpose!!

[The Prisoner]

The difference this time will be that the "4 year plan" will have to be implemented and not the usual fudge.

[luchi]

I can see where you are coming from but still can't see why you would think there would be an attack on the military budget.

ok do the DF might not be the most efficient organisation but when compared to the HSE, FAS and so many others it is streets a head.

[The Prisoner]

There will an attack on every budget heading - Education, Agriculture, etc.

This is a military forum so I think it maybe a place to discuss military matters. The again maybe I'm missing something

[Goldie fish]

We will do what the EU tells us.

Our neutrality, economic or military, is no longer ours to argue.

The DoD has been a shining light in terms of efficiency. More will be expected of it.
The days of local politicians campaigning on behalf of a local unit to retain a barracks/hut etc are numbered.
We can be sure of this. If the government give assurances that x, y or z will not be cut, you can expect the opposite.
This government can no longer be trusted to be truthful.

I wouldnt be surprised if they decided that Offaly was an ideal location for the new Nato anti missile shield.

[DeV]

What cuts are likely over the next 12/18 months?

We are talking 4 years of cuts not 1.5!

Perhaps the RDF will become a totally voluntarily organisation. No pay, no grat, but the resources available to them remain the same (ammo, uniforms etc).

If we can't get the numbers when it is paid what hope do we have?

Ireland military is organised and run in accordance with international best practice and so should be left alone.

After the new reorg it won't be in keeping with international practice!

The difference this time will be that the "4 year plan" will have to be implemented and not the usual fudge.

Based on Government assumption as to how the economy will work out!

[The Prisoner]

We are talking 4 years of cuts not 1.5!

Agreed, I think the Defence cuts might be front loaded as they are preceived as easier cuts. No unions, no protests as such. Migh tas well close bks x now than wait until 2013.

I would be amased if there were not further closures and units merged between now and 2014.

[SwiftandSure]

What about downsizing the PDF and upskilling the RDF as a supplement? VFM review pending.....

While those who have an appreciation of soldiering would laugh at that idea knowing the state of the RDF in it's current form; it's the accountants that'll probably be making the decisions, and the RDF for all it's flaws, is cheap.

[hptmurphy]

An opinion voiced to me as recently as saturady night would make me believe that there a re serious restrictions about to be placed on the DF and the NS in particular have no illusions that they will not be exempt.

Biggest cost for the DF is wages.

Second especially for the NS would be fuel.

Fuel economy wise guess what are the most fuel efficient in the current fleet...?


The PVs

The P51 class being the heaviest users with the a figure of twice that of a PV mentioned.

The general opinion being yes Emer is old but she is a bout half the price per patrol of Roisin to run.

Other possibilties being to tie up Eithne or a the pair of Peacocks as these are notoriously thirsty beasts.

Eithne from a man power point of view eats in to numbers big time .

The 40 recruits are but a drop in the ocean with people not being replaced for the past two years. There are no serving Warrant officers in two divisions at least and if the moratorium continues on promotion we could end up with a very young warrant officer in the future.

This came from a group of well placed people to have an opinion.

I can't say what the Army or AC envisage but if the use of consumables is highlighted there could be a few pilots keeping there hours up on simulators as opposed to actual flying.

Minibuses will get far more use and belting around the Glen in scorpions at €1.31.9 per litre on petrol is out of the question.

I know this has been mentioned before but the reality struck home when the NS themselves were picking up on it from a fuel perspective...and some guys are still sceptical of the new ships. That they could be delivered alright but wouldn't put to sea together until the recession had at least eased.

[danno]

cuts

Hopefully the babcock deal is written in stone and beyond review along with the S92 helis for the CG.
Looking down the road ,given the results of shorebased fishing protection by the SFPA, we will probably see this as an excuse to have a smaller NS.Also as the fish belong to the EEC sea/air patrols might be shared out to other navies.
Unless the MA can be 100% convincing that the RDF is a neccessary/vital part of the DF its days are numbered.It wont be too long for the beancounters to suggest a new setup to provide a cheaper alternative by combining vol units such as RDF CG GR and CD and packaging it as a community defence or some other moniker.Not needed means not funded.

[Goldie fish]

I have been saying it for years, the RDF needs a quantifiable output, other than guards of honour or Annual training.
Without this, your reason for being is hard to justify.

[smegers]

What would this quantifiable output be? Cash escorts, overseas?