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DF Strength Down the years

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  • #31
    Originally posted by Flamingo View Post
    The problem with using graphs for predictions is that they may not take the real world into account. I remember in around 1996 going to a conference on Day Surgery (then a relatively new concept) where one of the speakers said (tongue in cheek) that at the then rate of increase in day surgery, the NHS would stop doing inpatient surgery of any type about 2012.
    BLASPHEMY!
    Excel is GOD!
    German 1: Private Schnutz, I have bad news for you.
    German 2: Private? I am a general!
    German 1: That is the bad news.

    Comment


    • #32
      Originally posted by trellheim View Post
      mine wasnt as bad but eeeeeeeeek

      ps someone please argue with me here
      My trendline above is definitely overly pessimistic, as it uses the entire 50 year trend over time, forecasting anything is impossible with so many structural breaks in the data. However, in all seriousness, one doesn't need a degree in statistics to see how the structural breaks and thus declines directly coincide with policy changes and reorganisations. Without any such changes, its likely strength with continue to decline, but nowhere near as rapidly as predicted with the trend analysis above. But... it has gotten so low at this point that it may be one more bad policy away from trending towards 0. That should be the largest concern.

      You've also got to wonder why the RDF skills survey is still delayed (other than departmental disinterest), there are far less people you even need to survey now! I mean give us a few weeks and we'd all probably get it done like.

      Comment


      • #33
        You've also got to wonder why the RDF skills survey is still delayed
        The RDF Skills survey ( the real one) was executed in 2015.
        "Are they trying to shoot down the other drone? "

        "No, they're trying to fly the tank"

        Comment


        • #34
          Originally posted by trellheim View Post
          The RDF Skills survey ( the real one) was executed in 2015.
          My mistake ..... Genuinely, forgive my ignorance here, and not to divert the thread, but what survey is delayed then?

          Comment


          • #35
            but what survey is delayed then?
            why do you think a survey is delayed.
            "Are they trying to shoot down the other drone? "

            "No, they're trying to fly the tank"

            Comment


            • #36
              Originally posted by trellheim View Post
              why do you think a survey is delayed.
              I'm majorly misremembering something I think, apologies. For some reason, I thought a skills survey was marked as being delayed in the white paper update in 2019. I shall end this brain fart here

              Comment


              • #37
                Excel is god and the figures do not lie but interpreting them is something different especially when it comes to people and how they react. Often there is a tipping point at which organisations collapse, look at the Fall of France, or the Fall of Singapore, just looking at pure numbers should have meant that the defenders had the advantage but morale broke and we all know what then happened.

                It can be that the RDF has reached or gone beyond that tipping point, it could be that the NS also is close or beyond and the question is what can be done. All sections of the forces have been damaged badly over many years and just a bit extra pay is not going to solve it, it might slow the decline but the decline is likley continue without radical surgery.

                Comment


                • #38
                  Originally posted by L.T.Smash! View Post
                  I'm majorly misremembering something I think, apologies. For some reason, I thought a skills survey was marked as being delayed in the white paper update in 2019. I shall end this brain fart here
                  No you are correct, it is DoD that has it wrong

                  The 2019 update merged the skills survey with the setting up of the Specialist Reserve and then paused the merged project.

                  Having said that the skills survey that was conducted didn’t include the FLR or anyone’s potential availability as the WP project said it should.

                  It was done in 2015 and 2016 and approved by DCOS(Ops)


                  The official line from DoD is the “skills survey & specialist reserve” project is paused
                  Last edited by DeV; 29 October 2020, 08:10.

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Originally posted by EUFighter View Post
                    Excel is god and the figures do not lie but interpreting them is something different especially when it comes to people and how they react. Often there is a tipping point at which organisations collapse, look at the Fall of France, or the Fall of Singapore, just looking at pure numbers should have meant that the defenders had the advantage but morale broke and we all know what then happened.

                    It can be that the RDF has reached or gone beyond that tipping point, it could be that the NS also is close or beyond and the question is what can be done. All sections of the forces have been damaged badly over many years and just a bit extra pay is not going to solve it, it might slow the decline but the decline is likley continue without radical surgery.
                    Excellent point, there comes a point when you no longer have enough officers and NCOs to train recruits, and not enough privates to do the other tasks so that training can take place. Unless you want to do all training at Locations shared by PDF, which in itself is a disadvantage, because you lose the ability to be self sufficient.
                    German 1: Private Schnutz, I have bad news for you.
                    German 2: Private? I am a general!
                    German 1: That is the bad news.

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Unless you want to do all training at Locations shared by PDF, which in itself is a disadvantage, because you lose the ability to be self sufficient.
                      It is all one Defence Force. Experience shows going down any other road leads to massive issues and lack of focus.
                      "Are they trying to shoot down the other drone? "

                      "No, they're trying to fly the tank"

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Originally posted by DeV View Post
                        No you are correct, it is DoD that has it wrong

                        The 2019 update merged the skills survey with the setting up of the Specialist Reserve and then paused the merged project.

                        Having said that the skills survey that was conducted didn’t include the FLR or anyone’s potential availability as the WP project said it should.

                        It was done in 2015 and 2016 and approved by DCOS(Ops)


                        The official line from DoD is the “skills survey & specialist reserve” project is paused
                        If working off 2015/2016 data will the survey results not be fairly obsolete anyway at this stage? With:
                        1. The number of people recorded in the survey who have left and
                        2. People who completed apprenticeships or degreess between then and now which arent recorded?

                        On a seperate question, I wonder how some units not training due to Covid will affect non-effective numbers next year?

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Originally posted by Exile View Post
                          If working off 2015/2016 data will the survey results not be fairly obsolete anyway at this stage? With:
                          1. The number of people recorded in the survey who have left and
                          2. People who completed apprenticeships or degreess between then and now which arent recorded?

                          On a seperate question, I wonder how some units not training due to Covid will affect non-effective numbers next year?
                          I'm sure covid would be an exceptional circumstance. Possibly best to ignore for 2020 (like everything else to do with the year).

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Originally posted by Exile View Post
                            If working off 2015/2016 data will the survey results not be fairly obsolete anyway at this stage? With:
                            1. The number of people recorded in the survey who have left and
                            2. People who completed apprenticeships or degreess between then and now which arent recorded?

                            On a seperate question, I wonder how some units not training due to Covid will affect non-effective numbers next year?
                            Definitely but it’s an easy fix.

                            You RO everyone’s qualifications and then update PMS. Really easy process put will consume a lot of orderly room time. And it is also searchable. It is suppose to happen anyway.

                            If you want to do a PMS cse you have to have either a CAPS or ECDL course done. You are considered not qualified to undergo PMS cse unless you are on PMS as having completed a CAPS/ECDL cse. If you have done an ECDL external to the DF. You send a copy of the cert to your orderly room and ask for it to be PMS’ed.

                            DoD could have marked it as completely if they wanted on the WP Update.



                            Penalised for failing to attend something that isn’t happening? Don’t put ideas in their heads
                            Last edited by DeV; 29 October 2020, 11:35.

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              You RO everyone’s qualifications and then update PMS
                              You can't do that without some proof of same and its irrelevant where no legal qualifications exist (e.g. Cyber, Cloud , most of IT Development and while there are Cyber quals they are incredibly diverse )


                              Anyway we are getting off topic with reserve issues in a Combined thread. please post RDF issues in the main RDF thread - you know which one.
                              "Are they trying to shoot down the other drone? "

                              "No, they're trying to fly the tank"

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                To get the thread back on track, I've been hunting down an additional few years of figures, I have the figures from 1946 to 1969 for PDF and 1949 to 1969 for RDF, I've tried to maintain consistency with trellheim's figures so it can give us an accurate picture. But there were significant ranges for figures in some years depending on how they were reported. I tried my best to pick the most consistent figures for each year. Some interesting side notes, the FLR for the period from about 1950 to mid 1960s, is consistently 5000+ish, but then suddenly drops off to 1500ish from then on, and continues declining, I didn't add those figures here though because they were inconsistent and sporadic at best. The PDF figures are more or less consistent over the period, but are almost always well bellow establishment. The oireachtas archives seem to stop dead at the emergency era in 1945 with regards to numbers, but they might exist in some history texts or journals written about the era. Apologies in advance for the sheer length of this post too!

                                RDF
                                1949 30333 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1949-04-05/29/
                                1950 30311 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1951-02-14/56/
                                1951 22597 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1951-04-05/23/
                                1952 21000 APPROX https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates.../1952-05-29/7/
                                1953 17360 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1956-07-04/11/
                                1954 18104 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1956-07-04/11/
                                1955 19685 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1956-07-04/11/
                                1956 19663 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1956-07-04/11/
                                1957 19890 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
                                1958 19944 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
                                1959 20092 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
                                1960 20540 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
                                1961 20422 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
                                1962 20124 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
                                1963 18972 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
                                1964 18933 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
                                1965 18933 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
                                1966 18650 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
                                1967 18016 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1967-04-06/63/
                                1968 19773
                                1969 20459

                                PDF
                                1946 14326 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1947-03-11/25/
                                1947 9938 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1947-03-11/25/
                                1948 8672 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1948-04-14/76/
                                1949 8006 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1949-04-05/29/
                                1950 7741 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1951-02-14/56/
                                1951 7781 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1951-04-05/23/
                                1952 10277 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1952-05-20/23/
                                1953 10562 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1956-07-04/11/
                                1954 10412 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1956-07-04/11/
                                1955 9692 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1956-07-04/11/
                                1956 8735 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1956-07-04/11/
                                1957 8846 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
                                1958 8130 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
                                1959 9188 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
                                1960 8965 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
                                1961 8868 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
                                1962 8451 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
                                1963 8449 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
                                1964 8221 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
                                1965 8199 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
                                1966 8159 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
                                1967 8415 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1967-04-06/63/
                                1968 8210 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1968-11-07/34/
                                1969 8242

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