Potential troop missions

[pym]

Bit risky paul. One incident in Dublin, which doesn't have to be anywhere near the scale of Paris attacks, or one beheaded Irish person and the electorate will collectively make a mess of their pants.

It wont matter to them if the planning and prep for the atrocity was done long prior to the deployment.

Cue election and embarrassing withdrawal, and "let's only send unarmed observers from now on" discourse.

I'd be more interested in an increase in personnel and resources for both Garda & DF intel. That would probably be more helpful to our EU neighbours than sending 60 troops into Mali.

Agree with B20 - increase in UNIFIL would be the most obvious route.

[TangoSierra]

I'd be more interested in an increase in personnel and resources for both Garda & DF intel. That would probably be more helpful to our EU neighbours than sending 60 troops into Mali.

Agree with B20 - increase in UNIFIL would be the most obvious route.

Seconded.

[DeV]

http://www.un.org/Depts/Cartographic/map/dpko/unifil.pdf

I think the French are what used to be the FMR

[DeV]

http://m.rte.ie/news/2015/1120/748088-france-ireland-department-defence/

[Fridge Magnet]

I really hope we don't take the UNIFIL option, it's such a pointless mission.

[Fridge Magnet]

http://www.un.org/Depts/Cartographic...pko/unifil.pdf

I think the French are what used to be the FMR

Yes, they are.

[Bravo20]

That would fit in with our new preferred role

[SwiftandSure]

I really hope we don't take the UNIFIL option, it's such a pointless mission.

While I would never wish any harm on the lads, I do think that we need to be part of a mission at the pointy-end of the GWOT. For live operational experience and hopefully improved public backing more than anything else. I bet the public attitude to the DF would change considerably if we were seen to be conducting successful actions against Islamic extremism.

[DeV]

That would fit in with our new preferred role

Except we don't have the equipment to do it, the Irish/Finnish (or for that matter Finnish/Irish) UNIFIL Inf Bn and the Inf Gp with UNDOF

[Fridge Magnet]

While I would never wish any harm on the lads, I do think that we need to be part of a mission at the pointy-end of the GWOT. For live operational experience and hopefully improved public backing more than anything else. I bet the public attitude to the DF would change considerably if we were seen to be conducting successful actions against Islamic extremism.

You're preaching to the choir mate.

Sure look at all the good press the DF got once UNDOF got a bit wobbly.

[pym]

The UN Security Council on Friday authorized countries to "take all necessary measures" to fight the Islamic State group in a resolution that won unanimous backing a week after the Paris attacks.

http://forum.irishmilitaryonline.com/showthread.php?24059-Potential-troop-missions&p=434946#post434946

Err, so is that one part of the triple lock sorted?

[paul g]

Bit risky paul. One incident in Dublin, which doesn't have to be anywhere near the scale of Paris attacks, or one beheaded Irish person and the electorate will collectively make a mess of their pants.

It wont matter to them if the planning and prep for the atrocity was done long prior to the deployment.

Cue election and embarrassing withdrawal, and "let's only send unarmed observers from now on" discourse.

I'd be more interested in an increase in personnel and resources for both Garda & DF intel. That would probably be more helpful to our EU neighbours than sending 60 troops into Mali.

Agree with B20 - increase in UNIFIL would be the most obvious route.

I would disagree, frankly the government have to be seen to be doing something, otherwise they run the risk of others not helping them. Dublin has the European HQ of US companies that despite what people say would be considered prime targets and a free travel zone with the UK (nothing to do with Schengen), which is a hotbed of Islamic radicals. Add countries like France resenting our corporation tax , if we fail to provide assistance then we might easily find out self plucked when Aladdin decides that the best place to take down US social media multinationals is Dublin.

Secondly, Mali as a potential mission has been on the cards for a while, the UN have a Dutch led mission there that is largely based around intelligence gathering in Northern Mali, a ranger wing deployment would be a sufficiently robust response, the terrain there is ideal for the vehicles the ranger wing have, (F-350 SORV and ACMATS are made for that sort of country). Deployment could take place by air and we've worked with the Dutch before in Africa.

Thirdly, people are right to say we haven't got the capability to replace the French in UNIFIL and they're correct, the French have about 900 soldiers there, we have neither the men nor equipment for that role, they are after all a country with a population 15 times ours a G 7 economy and UN security council seat. However, that would be an ideal mission for the 2016 EU Battlegroup and ISTAR Company. The Visegrad one for the first six months of 2016 would be difficult to deploy as its members would be worried about the Ukraine and Russian interest in that region. However, from June of 2016 the German BG could deploy. The Germans would love to help their allies in France and to be frank we have the equipment for the ISTAR company, and have priotorised spending on it over the past eight years. It could go to either Mali or Lebanon, frankly I would have thought Mali was more likely.

Fourthly, you're right Neutrality is a key issue with some voters. However it’s not a key issue not with Fine Gael voters, on the contrary FG has often argued for NATO membership. People who are really concerned with it, (Roger Cole PANA) will vote Sinn Fein, PBP, and the like, no matter what they're not going to vote for "Blueshirts". FF is realistic enough to know that the state can't stand idly by after what has happened, and have an affinity and sympathy with French Republicanism anyway. Labour is reliant on FG transfers to survive as a party, and like FF are realists.
The Lisbon vote took place at the height of the Iraq war and the left ran a really clever campaign based around people’s fear off and ignorance about "conscription". However in a general election people vote about the economy and everybody knows it, deploying troops to combat Isis won’t be an issue and would appeal to certain demographics like women. If there are more attacks in Europe like London or skiing resorts, especially if Irish people are killed, then it would intensify public support for any deployment. Kenny is not going to lose any votes over it. And frankly there will be more attacks.
So frankly, Kenny could go and say straight away “I’m going to send some more troops to train soldiers in Mali, and to protect them, I’m going to send a detachment of the ranger wing as part of a Dutch UN led force protection mission for six months”. Then come the end of March after the election , he could announce the ISTAR Company deployment of the EU Battlegroup in June, either to Mali or Chad.

[pym]

Paul - always enjoy reading your posts as you're coming from a well researched position.

I've had a few drinks so, not doing justice to a proper reply - but my wariness on a larger Mali deployment stems from the possible consequences for the DF.

We've got to do more and have to offer more as a state to our EU neighbours, that's not in question.

Really for me it boils down to: politically, would the state continue to support a deployment to Mali if there was an Islamist attack on Dublin, which was ostensibly in retaliation for that same deployment?

I have a major doubt that we would. And I have concerns about where that would leave the DF.

I don't doubt that we're a target anyway and that an attack could happen at any time. But a deployment abroad in response to an attack at home is a different scenario.

I'm not debating the moral obligation to help our neighbours, the fight has to be taken to IS. It's the political dimension that worries me. The bottle or lack thereof.

Basically, I don't want us to wind up like Japan and enter a period where we're pathologically opposed to deployments.

That being said...

However, difficulties are not an excuse for inaction, Mellett argues. He invokes George Bernard Shaw’s assertion that “a life spent making mistakes is not only more honourable, but more useful, than a life spent doing nothing”.

[DeV]

a free travel zone with the UK (nothing to do with Schengen), which is a hotbed of Islamic radicals.

we have our own as well!

Secondly, Mali as a potential mission has been on the cards for a while, the UN have a Dutch led mission there that is largely based around intelligence gathering in Northern Mali, a ranger wing deployment would be a sufficiently robust response, the terrain there is ideal for the vehicles the ranger wing have, (F-350 SORV and ACMATS are made for that sort of country). Deployment could take place by air and we've worked with the Dutch before in Africa.

The French have requested us to considering sending troops on missions to replace theirs. They have s total of 8 with the UN mission in Mali (the establishment number for the mission being in the region of 11,000) and around 200 with the EUTM. I would say they are asking about EUTM.

Your right about the ARW.

Thirdly, people are right to say we haven't got the capability to replace the French in UNIFIL and they're correct, the French have about 900 soldiers there, we have neither the men nor equipment for that role, they are after all a country with a population 15 times ours a G 7 economy and UN security council seat. However, that would be an ideal mission for the 2016 EU Battlegroup and ISTAR Company. The Visegrad one for the first six months of 2016 would be difficult to deploy as its members would be worried about the Ukraine and Russian interest in that region. However, from June of 2016 the German BG could deploy. The Germans would love to help their allies in France and to be frank we have the equipment for the ISTAR company, and have priotorised spending on it over the past eight years. It could go to either Mali or Lebanon, frankly I would have thought Mali was more likely.

Ok
The French with EUTM are the force protection coy and logistics units of around 200 personnel. They protect the bases and do local patrols. So sending a 2000+ strong EUBG isn't required. Although the ISTAR Coy could probably fill this role it isn't what they are set up for.

The French with UNIFIL are the FCR, an armoured infantry coy (probably within the capabilities of the EUBG) and a Leclerc MBT Coy (not within EUBG capabilities). Either way they are not within the capabilities of the ISTAR Coy.

We can't decide to deploy the ISTAR Coy, they are even limited as to when they can take leave. Any deployment of the EUBG (or elements of) requires a European Council decision.

I would say that support within the European Council for a EUBG deployment would be more likely after last weeks events but it would be like Bush invading Iraq because of 9/11. But it would be over kill for EUTM Mali (they would only need a partial APC mounted Inf Coy and arguably wouldn't have the heavy equipment (ie MBTs) required by UNIFIL (it would also be too big).

Fourthly, you're right Neutrality is a key issue with some voters. However it’s not a key issue not with Fine Gael voters, on the contrary FG has often argued for NATO membership. People who are really concerned with it, (Roger Cole PANA) will vote Sinn Fein, PBP, and the like, no matter what they're not going to vote for "Blueshirts". FF is realistic enough to know that the state can't stand idly by after what has happened, and have an affinity and sympathy with French Republicanism anyway. Labour is reliant on FG transfers to survive as a party, and like FF are realists.
The Lisbon vote took place at the height of the Iraq war and the left ran a really clever campaign based around people’s fear off and ignorance about "conscription". However in a general election people vote about the economy and everybody knows it, deploying troops to combat Isis won’t be an issue and would appeal to certain demographics like women. If there are more attacks in Europe like London or skiing resorts, especially if Irish people are killed, then it would intensify public support for any deployment. Kenny is not going to lose any votes over it. And frankly there will be more attacks.
So frankly, Kenny could go and say straight away “I’m going to send some more troops to train soldiers in Mali, and to protect them, I’m going to send a detachment of the ranger wing as part of a Dutch UN led force protection mission for six months”. Then come the end of March after the election , he could announce the ISTAR Company deployment of the EU Battlegroup in June, either to Mali or Chad.

Remains to be seen

but my wariness on a larger Mali deployment stems from the possible consequences for the DF.

Again we would be talking max an Inf coy (and/or possibly a few logs Plns and/or more trainers). The task would be force protection of EUTM bases and personnel (which would be largely a static local task (apart from escorts and the like other that that you are talking about securing the bases).

[kaiser]

The French sit un Naqoura not doing a lot in a pointless mission. Will our top brass like the idea of us havin a few extra bods in naqoura crossing over the border when the feel like it . I'd say absolutely.. Will they want more guys in Mali a malaria mission, were its a little hot in certain regions I think not. Maybe axe Undof as its a joke and send them to wear ever