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  • Originally posted by ancientmariner View Post
    Historically over the decades ships have increased in cost e.g. Deirdre 1 million , Eithne 26m, Roisin 40m, James Joyce 60m...
    increased in cost, yes - gone from €60m for an SB class in 2015 to €200m (and a decades worth of inflation..) for an Absalon class in 2020, no.

    if you see a political appetite within any likely government - rather than within the NS or from a particular Minister of Defence - after the next election for splashing €200m on a single ship then thats great, but from where i sit such a sum is possibly even double what i can imagine any Defence Minister and Taoiseach pushing through Cabinet for just one ship.

    i'd be interested in hearing the views of others - better informed than i....

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    • Originally posted by ropebag View Post
      increased in cost, yes - gone from €60m for an SB class in 2015 to €200m (and a decades worth of inflation..) for an Absalon class in 2020, no.

      if you see a political appetite within any likely government - rather than within the NS or from a particular Minister of Defence - after the next election for splashing €200m on a single ship then thats great, but from where i sit such a sum is possibly even double what i can imagine any Defence Minister and Taoiseach pushing through Cabinet for just one ship.

      i'd be interested in hearing the views of others - better informed than i....
      +1

      When there hospital waiting lists are how high?!

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      • Originally posted by ropebag View Post
        increased in cost, yes - gone from €60m for an SB class in 2015 to €200m (and a decades worth of inflation..) for an Absalon class in 2020, no.

        if you see a political appetite within any likely government - rather than within the NS or from a particular Minister of Defence - after the next election for splashing €200m on a single ship then thats great, but from where i sit such a sum is possibly even double what i can imagine any Defence Minister and Taoiseach pushing through Cabinet for just one ship.

        i'd be interested in hearing the views of others - better informed than i....
        there is a whole section on funding in the white paper just for this eventuality, look at 116/117. It explains in detail how more has to be spent on equiipment, and how it will be funded, (borrowing from the European investment bank seems most plausible)

        People are assuming the state can go back to the position pre 2008, or what the NS thought it needed in 2006, but it can't, like it or not with Georgia, Ukraine, Syria and Tunisia, the political and military situation has changed , and the country with the fastest growing economy in the Euro Zone cant say its poor any Longer.

        As for hospital lists, like the poor they'll always be with us.

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        • I reckon the budget for Eithnes replacement will be somewhere around the 120 million mark. Possibly more if the "Fiscal Space" is over 4 billion. Payments will be spread over a number of years.

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          • Are we assuming too much here, Is it necessary or desirable to replace the one P30 with a similar vessel? Would a 4th P60 do the job?
            "We will hold out until our last bullet is spent. Could do with some whiskey"
            Radio transmission, siege of Jadotville DR Congo. September 1961.
            Illegitimi non carborundum

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            • Well the Government decided otherwise

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              • Originally posted by Turkey View Post
                Are we assuming too much here, Is it necessary or desirable to replace the one P30 with a similar vessel? Would a 4th P60 do the job?
                No. An EPV (or two) is becoming more and more a necessity in the worsening atlantic conditions. L.E. Samuel Beckett took shelter in Lough Swilly from Storm Henry recently. The frequency of these storms are making life a misery for crews on patrol. the Larger EPV would make life somewhat more easy when a ship absolutely has to keep on patrol.
                As an aside I see traditionally neutral Sweden is considering joining NATO so it won't have to continue to go it alone against Russian aggression. It also complains that ist defence force, often held as an example of a neutral military, is ill equipped to defend against what it was created to defend against.

                Perhaps in March, we will have a government willing to ditch the pointlessness of our token neutrality.
                For now, everything hangs on implementation of the CoDF report.

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                • Originally posted by na grohmití View Post
                  No. An EPV (or two) is becoming more and more a necessity in the worsening atlantic conditions. L.E. Samuel Beckett took shelter in Lough Swilly from Storm Henry recently. The frequency of these storms are making life a misery for crews on patrol. the Larger EPV would make life somewhat more easy when a ship absolutely has to keep on patrol.
                  As an aside I see traditionally neutral Sweden is considering joining NATO so it won't have to continue to go it alone against Russian aggression. It also complains that ist defence force, often held as an example of a neutral military, is ill equipped to defend against what it was created to defend against.

                  Perhaps in March, we will have a government willing to ditch the pointlessness of our token neutrality.
                  To be fair, I think at least some of Sweden's issues is that they ran down their military from the 90's until Russia's resurgence (like pretty much all of Western Europe), and now they have to try and rebuild that and that has issues. For example the Navies capability to hunt that possible sub exposed several issues.

                  As to what we'll get post election no matter who we get, it won't change anything I'd bet.

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                  • Originally posted by Turkey View Post
                    Are we assuming too much here, Is it necessary or desirable to replace the one P30 with a similar vessel? Would a 4th P60 do the job?
                    Hi Turkey

                    The thing is that another P 60 would limit the Defence forces and their ability to react to future crises.
                    The second is that we have to think about how the requirements have changed according to circumstances. The original specification for the MRV was drawn up from 2002 to 2006 at a time when the world and indeed the state were in a very different place.
                    Think back to 2006. EU and NATO expansion into Eastern Europe were in their infancy, the US was the totally dominant world power and Russia didn’t have a pot to piss in militarily. At the time the government wasn’t worried about Euro membership because Tony had assured bertie that the UK would join the Euro zone, so Ireland could relax. Nobody had heard of the Islamic state and the north and eastern Mediterranean and the Baltic were peaceful. We were all getting used to an influx of eastern Europeans and the economy was booming. Politicans if they cared about defence wanted their local barracks kept open and a FCA unit in every hamlet in the state. We’d all voted for EU integration, but nobody had thought about what happens when things went tits up. It is in these circumstances that the requirements and tender for the EPV were drawn up.

                    Fast forward on a decade and things are radically different from a political view. From the state’s point of view the following are important
                    A) British membership of the EU is hanging by its fingernails and I seriously doubt they’ll vote to stay in. If they do leave then we’ll loose our closest ally and will be more isolated from the mainstream of European affairs. We have no choice but to stay in with the Euro zone and as a result will be expected to contribute more. If we want to keep our present model of Dublin acting as the European HQ for American multi nationals in the Eurozone then there will be no other option but to spend more on defence, as the Europeans will correctly say that they can’t because of our business model.
                    B) Russia is resurgent, and with oil prices declining there is a temptation for Putin to launch an adventure in the Baltic states or Poland. Given the number of citizens from these states in Ireland and the fact we share a currency with them, a crisis in the Baltic would have profound repercussions for the state, would bring Finland Sweden and Austria into NATO and then we’de be totally isolated.
                    C) Syria, it will get a lot worse, drag in the Saudi’s and possibly Turkey and Jordan . A limited war between Turkey and Russia over Syria cannot totally be ruled out. It’s a mess and the refugee crisis will be even worse this summer. The state will have to deepen its involvement in the Meditteranean
                    D) Africa is a prime target for Daesh, the implosion of either Algeria and Nigeria and religious and ethnic conflict ala biafra would cause a refugee crisis the likes of which would make today’s refugee crisis seem like a picnic.
                    E) All this is pushing for a CSDP within the EU
                    It doesn’t matter who wins on the 26th of this month (and I make no secret of whom I vote for) these are political realities that any new government will have to deal with. Hence the white paper, and the need for naval capabilities that meet the new world reality.

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                    • to extend/consolidate Paul G's point about the rise of Russia and the attitudes of both Sweden and Finland towards NATO membership warming considerably, i found this...



                      it concentrates more on Sweden than Finland, and its worth reading in its entirety despite what appears to be some lumpy translantion, but in short, only the Swedish Centre left and green parties do not favour NATO membership - centerist, christian democrat, alliance (?), all have decided that the bear is on the prowl, and only NATO membership will keep him from making a move in the Baltic...

                      personally i disagree with Paul over the UK's EU membership - i think the UK will stay in, and i'd put €5 for the server fund on it doing so by about 55% - but i agree with the crux of his post: Europes neighbourhood is getting much more dangerous - Russia is on the prowl in the East and North, and IS will control significant swathes of territory from the Caucuses to the Straights of Gibraltar, with at least Greece looking like a failing state as far is its border control is concerned. Europes security needs are going through the roof, and claiming to be the poor boy at the back will no longer be considered a good reason to not help protect the security of Europes borders.

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                      • The P60 series ,and any ship, needs to go into ship surviving mode from storm 10 onwards. The question of suitability is largely down to the ships Combat and Control Systems which should provide 360 degree detection and response in all dimensions including subsurface. The current Defence Protocols in Europe saw some 30 Missions activated over the last few years, with some continuing. We obviously need to make some choices and seek assistance within the Alliance where necessary , if we wish to participate.
                        The MRV when it arrives must be capable of completing all it's logistic tasks in the zones of operation , including those in conflict. Like any ship, the MRV, would also have weather constraints requiring ship minding in storm force winds.

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                        • There is a lot of comment here about how the world has changed, it is true, however:

                          If the UK leaves the UK, they are still in NATO (and the PfP) that won't be effected
                          We don't border or are within the sphere of influence of Russia
                          We aren't within the range of a small boat from Syria or North Africa

                          There is probably an increased likelyhood of the DF having to deploy its (reduced) resources to the Baltic, Middle East or North Africa.

                          If anything the reinforces the idea of the NS requirement for a limited NS expeditionary capability in the form of an EPV/MRV with the capability to deploy at least a Mech Coy Gp sized force.

                          The reality is that the DF will never operate alone where ever it goes, they don't have the resources in terms of personnel or equipment. Unless they look at tripling the budget (won't happen) - they never will.

                          In hand with that this country can't afford (or man) a vessel any larger than that.

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                          • Originally posted by DeV View Post
                            We don't border or are within the sphere of influence of Russia .
                            What about Russian Bears flying in Irish Controled Airspace with no transponders, or a Russian aircraft carrier spilling fuel off the Irish coast. And I wouldn't be surprised if there was a Russian SSBN off the west coast or in the Irish sea tonight. Ireland might not be in NATO but its right in the middle of it's area of responsibility and won't be immune from Russian hostilities.
                            It was the year of fire...the year of destruction...the year we took back what was ours.
                            It was the year of rebirth...the year of great sadness...the year of pain...and the year of joy.
                            It was a new age...It was the end of history.
                            It was the year everything changed.

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                            • or military confrontation on Europes eastern borders creating political instability and economic difficulties - you share the same currency as Poland and Latvia, not to mention Greece, if they have a problem, you have a problem.

                              with the greatest of respect Dev, i really don't think you've grasped just how intertwined Ireland is with continental Europe - the Euro and the trade you do with Europe means that in some ways you're in the same country at Tallin and Athens: when they are in the shit, you are in the shit. not getting involved is no more of an option than one hotel room not being interested when the next hotel room is on fire.
                              Last edited by ropebag; 4 February 2016, 20:35.

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                              • Originally posted by CTU View Post
                                What about Russian Bears flying in Irish Controled Airspace with no transponders, or a Russian aircraft carrier spilling fuel off the Irish coast. And I wouldn't be surprised if there was a Russian SSBN off the west coast or in the Irish sea tonight. Ireland might not be in NATO but its right in the middle of it's area of responsibility and won't be immune from Russian hostilities.
                                And we won't be immune from NATO either if we cannot protect ourselves .
                                Don't spit in my Bouillabaisse .

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