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  • #46
    Putin will survive as long as he can keep jailing his opponents, and terrifying his electorate, and changing the state laws to allow him serve another term.
    For now, everything hangs on implementation of the CoDF report.

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    • #47
      Originally posted by paul g View Post
      Which brings us back to the Tu-95, and what to do? The problem is that we are geographically isolated and protected by NATO powers, and spendingon defence to replicate NATO spending would be sa waste of money. Looking at the mission at the weekend the Tu 95 were first intercepted by the Norwegian air force that then passed them over to the British, flying from lossiemouth. In real conflict they’d be shot from the sky long before they got anyway near our west coast. NATO has a technological and geographic edge over the Russians that simply can’t be bridged. The Russians can’t get away from the fact that in a real war, radar and interceptor bases in Norway, Scotland and Iceland form a barrier that they simply can’t breach, the GIUK gap in professional parlance (which I’ll come back to).
      Agreed - there is no justification for spending anything on fighter aircraft, I brought the Bears into this thread because of the potential for closer working arrangements with the RAF.

      What was mooted in the 80's and perhaps would still make sense in the medium to long term, is improved radar surveillance - if it could be achieved without hitting more pressing DF requirements.

      The Russians have caused a few flaps of late with their submarine fleet - and it's not difficult to imagine them in our waters. Again if a better detection capability could be achieved without horrendous expense, perhaps it's worth doing.

      Both of those are areas that could be explored in either joint Irish-UK/Irish-EU projects.

      While Putin's leadership seems unassailable - the economic issues facing Russia are quite horrendous. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.
      Last edited by pym; 1 February 2015, 23:36.

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      • #48
        Originally posted by pym View Post
        Agreed - there is no justification for spending anything on fighter aircraft, I brought the Bears into this thread because of the potential for closer working arrangements with the RAF.

        What was mooted in the 80's and perhaps would still make sense in the medium to long term, is improved radar surveillance - if it could be achieved without hitting more pressing DF requirements.

        The Russians have caused a few flaps of late with their submarine fleet - and it's not difficult to imagine them in our waters. Again if a better detection capability could be achieved without horrendous expense, perhaps it's worth doing.

        Both of those are areas that could be explored in either joint Irish-UK/Irish-EU projects.

        While Putin's leadership seems unassailable - the economic issues facing Russia are quite horrendous. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.
        The bluffwaffe would love to have what they call a recognised air picture, and a military radar wouldn't break the bank, however

        The left/republicans would freak totally freak if something like that happened. It also opens a whole load of legal issues, and frankly would be counter productive given the threat level . I think that ireland has moved on a lot in the last 15 years and in another 15 years there will be lots of voters with emotional ties to Eastern Europe and family there, and the anti british element in irish society is dying out, (in fact we're starting to dislike the british for the same reasons the rest of europe do)

        Putin will cause problems for the west, and frankly I think there is a chance that Greece will be to 2015 what the Ukraine was to 2014, a crisis that nobody saw coming.

        But honestly, playing to our strenghts and things like istar company and improving the types of units we can deploy along with in the longer term improving our air and naval contribution at a European level to the eu battlegroup concept or naval monitoring missions is a much better response than co-operation with the british that would give Sinn Fein, Fianna fail, pana and a host of lefties a big stick to beat a government that is movin slowly towards supporting European defence arangements
        Last edited by paul g; 2 February 2015, 00:24.

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        • #49
          Fair enough but I reckon that the sacred cow of the "ould enemy" needs to be shattered,it has acted as a glass ceiling to too many positive movements for too long since the UK have ceased to bankroll the exclusively Loyalist regime in the 6 counties .

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          • #50
            Originally posted by ropebag View Post
            the costs involved of setting up a sovereign fighter force - airframes, techs, training, aircrew - would be astonishing. i wouldn't bet on much change of €5 billion over 5 or 6 years, and it would only be operational for perhaps 2 of those. it would be a 'courageous' politician who went for it.
            Actually it would only cost that type of money if you are to look at the totally unrealistic prospect of buying aircraft. Leasing aircraft is a surprisingly achievable prospect.

            The recent extension of the Gripen C lease deal to Czech Republic amounts to roughly €60 million per anum for 12 aircraft. Inclusive over the 10 years of the contract are training on type of 25 pilots and 90 techs, updates to keep the aircraft at the latest standard and the necessary logistical support. There is noting prohibitive in cost there for a country of our size.
            The total inclusive cost quoted by a Janes survey per flight hour for Gripen is $4700 vs $18,000 for Eurofighter. Fleet operating costs based on a 2000 hr year would be less than €10m per anum.

            Fast jet training could be completed under a bilateral arrangement at Valley, again at relatively low cost. The PC-9 actually does not leave a pilot very far short of required standard. Nothing a short course on a LIFT like Hawk 100 series wouldn´t quickly correct.

            The myth that fighter jets are utterly unachievable for Ireland needs to be dispelled. There are realistic options out there that wouldn't swallow the defence budget. We are the only country in the North Atlantic from Norway to Mauritania without an ability to police our airspace. At some point the country needs to awaken to the fact that calling oneself neutral actually places a greater need (not a lesser one) to take responsibility for policing ones own borders and to maintain a minimum capability for same.

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            • #51
              Where could the savings needed to make room in the DF budget be acheived to cater for the lease,makes the CG helis costs remarkable.

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              • #52
                If the DF could get €60 million pa for additional capital equipment, Ciara, Orla and Eithne would be replaced over 3 years

                That is 7% of the Defence budget

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                • #53
                  Originally posted by danno View Post
                  Where could the savings needed to make room in the DF budget be acheived to cater for the lease,makes the CG helis costs remarkable.
                  i recall seeing a quote on here in the last month or so where Coveney actually talked about an increace, in real terms, of the defence budget in the next Dail term.

                  now, that could be testicles, or it could be an 'aspiration', it could be €2.20 over 4 years -or, it might, just might, be genuine. and while we might quibble over the efficacy of a 'air force' with just 12 airframes, if a government thought it could say 'we've given you the protection of an air force equipped with modern fighters' for just €70m a year, it might give it serious consideration.

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                  • #54
                    As the DF has gotten progressively more efficient year on year (since the last white paper) and comes in consistently under budget, the actual budget has been reduced. The DF needs to take a leaf from the HSE book and start costing more. Go over budget et viola, your budget for next year is increased so you won't go over budget again. Worldwide we see procurement programs go drastically over budget (The USCG is currently paying 1bn per ship getting something that is basically a glorified Eithne). But the money keeps coming. Something else gets cut. Maybe the pony club goes, maybe child benefit to people no longer living in the state gets cut...
                    The RN are paying a few billion for 2 Aircraft carriers that will have no aircraft for a number of years, and one of the ships will immediately be mothballed. But it goes ahead because it supports UK industry.
                    We need to start thinking outside the box, and learning from our neighbours.
                    For now, everything hangs on implementation of the CoDF report.

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                    • #55
                      Barter the lease of aircraft for goods manufactured here. meat. butter. software etc, and bingo. DF are supporting Irish industry. ?

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                      • #56
                        Tax cuts for multinationals....

                        Oh wait...
                        For now, everything hangs on implementation of the CoDF report.

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                        • #57
                          Originally posted by na grohmití View Post
                          As the DF has gotten progressively more efficient year on year (since the last white paper) and comes in consistently under budget, the actual budget has been reduced. The DF needs to take a leaf from the HSE book and start costing more. Go over budget et viola, your budget for next year is increased so you won't go over budget again. Worldwide we see procurement programs go drastically over budget (The USCG is currently paying 1bn per ship getting something that is basically a glorified Eithne). But the money keeps coming. Something else gets cut. Maybe the pony club goes, maybe child benefit to people no longer living in the state gets cut...
                          The RN are paying a few billion for 2 Aircraft carriers that will have no aircraft for a number of years, and one of the ships will immediately be mothballed. But it goes ahead because it supports UK industry.
                          We need to start thinking outside the box, and learning from our neighbours.
                          Where do you think some of the extra money for the HSE comes from?

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                          • #58
                            Down the back of the couch?
                            For now, everything hangs on implementation of the CoDF report.

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                            • #59
                              Originally posted by na grohmití View Post
                              down the back of the couch?
                              :-d :-d :-d
                              "Well, stone me! We've had cocaine, bribery and Arsenal scoring two goals at home. But just when you thought there were truly no surprises left in football, Vinnie Jones turns out to be an international player!" (Jimmy Greaves)!"

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                              • #60
                                Following on from JJ's post, I see the Slovak Defence Minister says they are in negotiations with Sweden about the lease of Gripens. While not the only option for small countries it would seem to be a flexible, relatively reasonably priced method of achieving an air patrol/limited air defence capability.

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