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  1. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by na grohmiti View Post
    Without going into my spreadsheet, I give it till 2025.
    RDFtrend

    Hopefully this works, ran a trend forecast, and it looks pretty dire, 2023.

  2. #27
    Lord Chief Bottlewasher trellheim's Avatar
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    and it looks pretty dire, 2023.
    mine wasnt as bad but eeeeeeeeek

    ps someone please argue with me here
    Last edited by trellheim; 27th October 2020 at 20:19.
    "Are they trying to shoot down the other drone? "

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  3. #28
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    Linear trendline gives me 20 years max.
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  4. #29
    Recruit Poiuyt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by trellheim View Post
    mine wasnt as bad but eeeeeeeeek

    ps someone please argue with me here
    I think you did a graph 10 years ago that showed the RDF being finished in 2016. It is still round.

  5. #30
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    The problem with using graphs for predictions is that they may not take the real world into account. I remember in around 1996 going to a conference on Day Surgery (then a relatively new concept) where one of the speakers said (tongue in cheek) that at the then rate of increase in day surgery, the NHS would stop doing inpatient surgery of any type about 2012.
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  6. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Flamingo View Post
    The problem with using graphs for predictions is that they may not take the real world into account. I remember in around 1996 going to a conference on Day Surgery (then a relatively new concept) where one of the speakers said (tongue in cheek) that at the then rate of increase in day surgery, the NHS would stop doing inpatient surgery of any type about 2012.
    BLASPHEMY!
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  8. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by trellheim View Post
    mine wasnt as bad but eeeeeeeeek

    ps someone please argue with me here
    My trendline above is definitely overly pessimistic, as it uses the entire 50 year trend over time, forecasting anything is impossible with so many structural breaks in the data. However, in all seriousness, one doesn't need a degree in statistics to see how the structural breaks and thus declines directly coincide with policy changes and reorganisations. Without any such changes, its likely strength with continue to decline, but nowhere near as rapidly as predicted with the trend analysis above. But... it has gotten so low at this point that it may be one more bad policy away from trending towards 0. That should be the largest concern.

    You've also got to wonder why the RDF skills survey is still delayed (other than departmental disinterest), there are far less people you even need to survey now! I mean give us a few weeks and we'd all probably get it done like.

  9. #33
    Lord Chief Bottlewasher trellheim's Avatar
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    You've also got to wonder why the RDF skills survey is still delayed
    The RDF Skills survey ( the real one) was executed in 2015.
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  11. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by trellheim View Post
    The RDF Skills survey ( the real one) was executed in 2015.
    My mistake ..... Genuinely, forgive my ignorance here, and not to divert the thread, but what survey is delayed then?

  12. #35
    Lord Chief Bottlewasher trellheim's Avatar
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    but what survey is delayed then?
    why do you think a survey is delayed.
    "Are they trying to shoot down the other drone? "

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  13. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by trellheim View Post
    why do you think a survey is delayed.
    I'm majorly misremembering something I think, apologies. For some reason, I thought a skills survey was marked as being delayed in the white paper update in 2019. I shall end this brain fart here

  14. #37
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    Excel is god and the figures do not lie but interpreting them is something different especially when it comes to people and how they react. Often there is a tipping point at which organisations collapse, look at the Fall of France, or the Fall of Singapore, just looking at pure numbers should have meant that the defenders had the advantage but morale broke and we all know what then happened.

    It can be that the RDF has reached or gone beyond that tipping point, it could be that the NS also is close or beyond and the question is what can be done. All sections of the forces have been damaged badly over many years and just a bit extra pay is not going to solve it, it might slow the decline but the decline is likley continue without radical surgery.

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  16. #38
    Moderator DeV's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by L.T.Smash! View Post
    I'm majorly misremembering something I think, apologies. For some reason, I thought a skills survey was marked as being delayed in the white paper update in 2019. I shall end this brain fart here
    No you are correct, it is DoD that has it wrong

    The 2019 update merged the skills survey with the setting up of the Specialist Reserve and then paused the merged project.

    Having said that the skills survey that was conducted didn’t include the FLR or anyone’s potential availability as the WP project said it should.

    It was done in 2015 and 2016 and approved by DCOS(Ops)


    The official line from DoD is the “skills survey & specialist reserve” project is paused
    Last edited by DeV; 29th October 2020 at 09:10.

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  18. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by EUFighter View Post
    Excel is god and the figures do not lie but interpreting them is something different especially when it comes to people and how they react. Often there is a tipping point at which organisations collapse, look at the Fall of France, or the Fall of Singapore, just looking at pure numbers should have meant that the defenders had the advantage but morale broke and we all know what then happened.

    It can be that the RDF has reached or gone beyond that tipping point, it could be that the NS also is close or beyond and the question is what can be done. All sections of the forces have been damaged badly over many years and just a bit extra pay is not going to solve it, it might slow the decline but the decline is likley continue without radical surgery.
    Excellent point, there comes a point when you no longer have enough officers and NCOs to train recruits, and not enough privates to do the other tasks so that training can take place. Unless you want to do all training at Locations shared by PDF, which in itself is a disadvantage, because you lose the ability to be self sufficient.
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  20. #40
    Lord Chief Bottlewasher trellheim's Avatar
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    Unless you want to do all training at Locations shared by PDF, which in itself is a disadvantage, because you lose the ability to be self sufficient.
    It is all one Defence Force. Experience shows going down any other road leads to massive issues and lack of focus.
    "Are they trying to shoot down the other drone? "

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  21. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by DeV View Post
    No you are correct, it is DoD that has it wrong

    The 2019 update merged the skills survey with the setting up of the Specialist Reserve and then paused the merged project.

    Having said that the skills survey that was conducted didn’t include the FLR or anyone’s potential availability as the WP project said it should.

    It was done in 2015 and 2016 and approved by DCOS(Ops)


    The official line from DoD is the “skills survey & specialist reserve” project is paused
    If working off 2015/2016 data will the survey results not be fairly obsolete anyway at this stage? With:
    1. The number of people recorded in the survey who have left and
    2. People who completed apprenticeships or degreess between then and now which arent recorded?

    On a seperate question, I wonder how some units not training due to Covid will affect non-effective numbers next year?

  22. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Exile View Post
    If working off 2015/2016 data will the survey results not be fairly obsolete anyway at this stage? With:
    1. The number of people recorded in the survey who have left and
    2. People who completed apprenticeships or degreess between then and now which arent recorded?

    On a seperate question, I wonder how some units not training due to Covid will affect non-effective numbers next year?
    I'm sure covid would be an exceptional circumstance. Possibly best to ignore for 2020 (like everything else to do with the year).

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  24. #43
    Moderator DeV's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Exile View Post
    If working off 2015/2016 data will the survey results not be fairly obsolete anyway at this stage? With:
    1. The number of people recorded in the survey who have left and
    2. People who completed apprenticeships or degreess between then and now which arent recorded?

    On a seperate question, I wonder how some units not training due to Covid will affect non-effective numbers next year?
    Definitely but it’s an easy fix.

    You RO everyone’s qualifications and then update PMS. Really easy process put will consume a lot of orderly room time. And it is also searchable. It is suppose to happen anyway.

    If you want to do a PMS cse you have to have either a CAPS or ECDL course done. You are considered not qualified to undergo PMS cse unless you are on PMS as having completed a CAPS/ECDL cse. If you have done an ECDL external to the DF. You send a copy of the cert to your orderly room and ask for it to be PMS’ed.

    DoD could have marked it as completely if they wanted on the WP Update.



    Penalised for failing to attend something that isn’t happening? Don’t put ideas in their heads
    Last edited by DeV; 29th October 2020 at 12:35.

  25. #44
    Lord Chief Bottlewasher trellheim's Avatar
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    You RO everyone’s qualifications and then update PMS
    You can't do that without some proof of same and its irrelevant where no legal qualifications exist (e.g. Cyber, Cloud , most of IT Development and while there are Cyber quals they are incredibly diverse )


    Anyway we are getting off topic with reserve issues in a Combined thread. please post RDF issues in the main RDF thread - you know which one.
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  26. #45
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    To get the thread back on track, I've been hunting down an additional few years of figures, I have the figures from 1946 to 1969 for PDF and 1949 to 1969 for RDF, I've tried to maintain consistency with trellheim's figures so it can give us an accurate picture. But there were significant ranges for figures in some years depending on how they were reported. I tried my best to pick the most consistent figures for each year. Some interesting side notes, the FLR for the period from about 1950 to mid 1960s, is consistently 5000+ish, but then suddenly drops off to 1500ish from then on, and continues declining, I didn't add those figures here though because they were inconsistent and sporadic at best. The PDF figures are more or less consistent over the period, but are almost always well bellow establishment. The oireachtas archives seem to stop dead at the emergency era in 1945 with regards to numbers, but they might exist in some history texts or journals written about the era. Apologies in advance for the sheer length of this post too!

    RDF
    1949 30333 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1949-04-05/29/
    1950 30311 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1951-02-14/56/
    1951 22597 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1951-04-05/23/
    1952 21000 APPROX https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates.../1952-05-29/7/
    1953 17360 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1956-07-04/11/
    1954 18104 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1956-07-04/11/
    1955 19685 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1956-07-04/11/
    1956 19663 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1956-07-04/11/
    1957 19890 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
    1958 19944 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
    1959 20092 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
    1960 20540 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
    1961 20422 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
    1962 20124 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
    1963 18972 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
    1964 18933 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
    1965 18933 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
    1966 18650 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
    1967 18016 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1967-04-06/63/
    1968 19773
    1969 20459

    PDF
    1946 14326 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1947-03-11/25/
    1947 9938 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1947-03-11/25/
    1948 8672 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1948-04-14/76/
    1949 8006 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1949-04-05/29/
    1950 7741 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1951-02-14/56/
    1951 7781 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1951-04-05/23/
    1952 10277 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1952-05-20/23/
    1953 10562 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1956-07-04/11/
    1954 10412 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1956-07-04/11/
    1955 9692 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1956-07-04/11/
    1956 8735 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1956-07-04/11/
    1957 8846 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
    1958 8130 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
    1959 9188 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
    1960 8965 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
    1961 8868 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
    1962 8451 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
    1963 8449 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
    1964 8221 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
    1965 8199 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
    1966 8159 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1966-10-12/47/
    1967 8415 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1967-04-06/63/
    1968 8210 https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates...1968-11-07/34/
    1969 8242

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  28. #46
    Lord Chief Bottlewasher trellheim's Avatar
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    Well done LTS
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  30. #47
    Lord Chief Bottlewasher trellheim's Avatar
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    PDF strength interesting to watch. First peacekeeping mission 1958 , their low point 1951
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  31. #48
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    On quick glance though, PDF numbers have remained mostly steady since after The Emergency. The current figures are not even the lowest strength reached. The FCA/RDF numbers impact the overall view greatly, coming from a post-Emergency level of 30,000 or so, to the current dismal sub 2000 level.
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  33. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by na grohmiti View Post
    On quick glance though, PDF numbers have remained mostly steady since after The Emergency. The current figures are not even the lowest strength reached. The FCA/RDF numbers impact the overall view greatly, coming from a post-Emergency level of 30,000 or so, to the current dismal sub 2000 level.
    Fair enough, but what was the corresponding establishment figure at the time?
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  35. #50
    Lord Chief Bottlewasher trellheim's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Truck Driver View Post
    Fair enough, but what was the corresponding establishment figure at the time?
    You'd need to go back through the years to watch it change; the answers are asked now and then in the PQ's
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