UK to increase Defence Spending by largest since Cold War.

[Flamingo]

Anyway, an interesting debate, I'm in the British Army and proud of that; maybe my naivety gets the better of me at times but again and again I've seen our Armed Forces deliver their mission often against the odds. Theres a lot of negativity in the UK Defence Media, after all thats what sells stories and stirs debate, but if my time has taught me anything its that capabilities and equipment evolve / expand / contract in line with the geopolitical landscape and with evolving capabilities. Sometimes thats painful. Just my opinion, but I believe the war in Ukraine will cause a huge shake-up in NATO doctrine and in the shape of how land forces operate and fight for at least a generation.

The Ukraine conflict has certainly shaken a lot of people from the outlook that wars are fought against irregular forces with no air force of heavy weapons, in places that are hot, sandy and far away. It's also been a wake-up call to all of NATO that boring stockpiles matter, and need to be got and maintained as well as the shiny kit. Big Army is back with a vengeance!

[spider]

Yes big Armies, watch the Poles...they get it...very very impressive what they are doing. Poland will emerge as the leading conventionally equipped Army in Europe within the next five years, 1200 MBT's on order and what they are doing with their reserves is particularly noteworthy. The Ukrainians have given Vlad a bloody nose; the Poles would castrate him. If I was him I really wouldn't go there.

I've had a bit of exposure to the Ukrainians...humbling.

[Flamingo]

The best description I heard (on CNN by a US general, rtd) of the performance of "the second best army in the world" during their invasion was that if that force had gone staggering over the border to Poland, with its NATO backing, then none of them would have escaped back to Russia. It sounds like Poland wants to achieve that result without troubling NATO for much help.

[DeV]

Defence Command Paper was published today - doesn’t seem to say a lot

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1171269/Defence_Command_Paper_2023_Defence_s_response_to_a_more_contested_and_volatile_world.pdf

[Flamingo]

Defence Command Paper was published today - doesn’t seem to say a lot

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1171269/Defence_Command_Paper_2023_Defence_s_response_to_a_more_contested_and_volatile_world.pdf

It recognises the changed geopolitical situation, and that changes are needed. That's a start.

[na grohmiti]

That's more than the CoDF report did.

[Anzac]

Defence Command Paper was published today - doesn’t seem to say a lot

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1171269/Defence_Command_Paper_2023_Defence_s_response_to_a_more_contested_and_volatile_world.pdf

In your nearest neighbours latest major Defence document and there is no mention of Ireland at all in any of its 97 pages.

[Flamingo]

In your nearest neighbours latest major Defence document and there is no mention of Ireland at all in any of its 97 pages.

Probably just as well. It would only be seized on and taken out of context by the usual suspects.

[DeV]

Interestingly, UK’s CONTEST counter terrorism strategy was also published this month

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1171084/CONTEST_2023.pdf

“CONTEST addresses all forms of terrorism that affect the UK and our interests overseas, with the exception of Northern Ireland related terrorism in Northern Ireland, which is the responsibility of the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland.”

“Northern Ireland Related Terrorism
43. Northern Ireland Related Terrorism (NIRT) remains a serious threat, particularly in Northern Ireland. CONTEST does not address the threat from NIRT in Northern Ireland, which is managed by a separate strategic approach, led by the Northern Ireland Office.

CONTEST does cover the threat from NIRT in mainland Great Britain. It is important that the threats to Northern Ireland and to Great Britain are not considered in isolation.

44. Despite the significant political progress in Northern Ireland in the last 25 years, some dissident republican groups continue to carry out terrorist attacks. Between 2018 and April 2023, there were eight national security attacks in Northern Ireland. Police and prison officers, as well as members of the armed forces, continue to be primary targets of dissident republican groups. Violent dissident republican groups do not represent mainstream opinion across Northern Ireland, and support for them and their actions is low.

45. The NIRT threat is primarily concentrated and directed against targets in Northern Ireland. While NIRT activity in the rest of the UK is uncommon, dissident republican groups likely retain an ambition to conduct attacks in Great Britain. In recent years, this ambition has been limited to occasional batches of crude postal IEDs such as those sent to transport infrastructure targets in London and a military-linked target in Glasgow in March 2019. While crude and small-scale, these IEDs still have the capacity to cause serious injury and disruption to the intended recipients and members of the postal service.“

[Anzac]

Probably just as well. It would only be seized on and taken out of context by the usual suspects.

The usual suspects exist in every liberal democratic society. A noisy minority who will eventually have to be ignored for the long term greater good of the nation state and its place in the world.

Though the UK is no longer in the EU, it is mutually agreed by Brussels and London that when it comes to regional security they still complement and reinforce each other. Much more today than 5 years ago, where a major EU signposting document like the strategic compass probably would not have appeared so emphatic. The strategic compass anchors its obligations and intent on the "values" of the EU.

I suspect that over time the pressure from the rest of the EU members states is going to harden against Ireland's reluctance to participate further in the collective defence of Europe in a way that stills allows Ireland to maintain the nuances of military neutrality per the Lisbon treaty but to compel it to spend on defence a mandatory basement figure across all EU members states (for example 1% of GDP) so as to be in Irelands case "self reliant in association" when it comes for defence but not directly in a formal partnership.

[Flamingo]